South Africa

Last update: 15 March 2022

Economy wide

A 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway would require a 43% reduction below 2010 levels (or 304 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030), excluding LULUCF.

South Africa's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

2030 NDC

In September 2021, the Government of South Africa submitted its updated nationally determined contribution (NDC) which aims to reduce emissions 350-420 MtCO₂e/yr including LULUCF and conditional on international support by 2030. The updated NDC translates into emissions reductions of 20-33% below 2010 levels (or 366-436 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF).¹ This is an increase in ambition compared to South Africa’s draft updated NDC circulated for public consultation in March 2021.²

Long-term target

South Africa’s Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) targets an emissions level of 212-428 MtCO₂e/yr including LULUCF by 2050, translating to 229-445 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF or 19-58% below 2010 levels.³^,⁴

2050 Ambition

Our analysis of 1.5°C compatible pathways for South Africa shows a required reduction in total GHG emissions of 80-88% by 2050 from 2010 levels, when excluding LULUCF, or emissions of 65-107 MtCO₂e by 2050, more than half of the country’s current long-term target.⁵

Decarbonisation

A comprehensive restructuring of South Africa’s economy away from its historical dependence on fossil fuels is required to reach a 1.5°C compatible emissions trajectory.

Sectors

Power

As the largest emitting sector, the power sector will be critical in the decarbonisation of the South African economy. For the sector to be on a 1.5°C compatible pathway it would need to phase out coal by 2033, and be fully decarbonised by 2035-2040. To achieve this phase out would require very substantial just transition measures given the high workforce involved in the coal sector.
The country’s electricity plan (IRP2019) does not include a near-term phase out of coal, instead it commissions another 1.5 GW of new capacity, which by 2030 would see coal make up 43% of total installed generation capacity, down from 65.5% in 2018.⁶
South Africa has huge renewables potential, in particular for solar and wind power. While the proposed procurement of 6800 MW of renewables in the IRP2019 is promising, renewable power generation to date (4% in 2017) falls far short of what is required to reach 1.5°C compatibility: 78-90% by 2030 and 96-100% by 2050. Current plans to decommission ageing coal plants are insufficient and undermined by plans for new fossil fuel capacity.
At COP26, a consortium of countries (South Africa, France, Germany, the UK, the USA and the EU) announced a financing partnership to support SA’s transition to a low carbon and climate resilient economy. By mobilising an initial $8.5 billion (R131 billion) over the next three to five years, the partnership aims to accelerate the decarbonisation of South Africa’s economy, and support development of new low-carbon sectors.⁷

Buildings

Direct emissions from the building sector made up 8% of total CO₂ emissions in 2020.
Analysed 1.5°C pathways show the building sector would need to be decarbonised between 2030 and 2041 with electrification (if produced by renewables) a critical driver of decarbonisation of the sector.
Current policies and measures such as mandatory energy efficiency codes and the Post-2015 National Energy Efficiency Strategy are unlikely to be sufficient to drive the necessary transformation of the sector.

Transport

The transport sector accounted for 13% of total CO₂ emissions in 2017.
1.5°C pathways analysis show that direct CO₂ emissions from transport would need to decrease between 51% and 77% (from 2019 levels) by 2030 and 75% to 100% by 2050, with electrification rate of South Africa’s transport sector reaching between 70% to 97% by 2050.
Current government transport strategy, aiming at a 5% reduction of emissions from the transport sector by 2050 is insufficient to achieve full decarbonisation by 2050.

Industry

South Africa’s industry (process) emissions have decreased slowly since 1990 largely due to economic pressures, with little progress on decarbonising this sector. The main drivers of emissions in the Industry Processes and Product Use (IPPU) sector are the metal industries – principally the production of iron, steel and ferroalloys – and the mineral industries.
Achieving decarbonisation in line with the 1.5°C goal would require increasing the share of electricity (powered by renewable energy) used in the sector from 38% in 2019, to around 49% by 2030 and to between 69-82% by 2050.
When combined with hydrogen and biomass, electrification penetration could reach up to 95% by 2050.

Climate Action Tracker. South Africa’s Presidential climate commission recommends stronger mitigation target range for updated NDC: close to 1.5°C compatible | Climate Action Tracker. (2021). ↩
Department of Environment Forestry and Fisheries. Proposed updated Nationally Determined Contribution. (2021). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. South Africa 2020. Climate Action Tracker. (2020). ↩
Republic of South Africa. South Africa’s Low-Emission Development Strategy 2050. (2020). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches. ↩
Department of Energy, S. A. Integrated Resource Plan (IRP2019). (2019). ↩
The Presidency of the Republic of South Africa. Political Declaration on the Just Energy Transition in South Africa. (2021). ↩

What is South Africa's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?