What is South Africa's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Total final energy consumption of the industry sector has steadily increased from a 1993 low of 698,108 TJ to 1,001,498 TJ in 2019, largely driven by the overall performance of the economy.1,2 However, the emissions picture has been mixed, with vacillations driven by global economic pressures, electricity supply constraints, changes in product output, a growing service sector and slow annual GDP growth.3,4 Since 2017, in particular, fuel combustion emissions across all sectors have been decreasing due in part to the slowing economy (pre- and during COVID).5,6,7,8
South Africa's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Process emissions from the Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) sector contributed on average, 7% of total national emissions (excl. LULUCF) between 2000 and 2017.9 The main drivers of emissions in the IPPU sector are the metal industries - principally the production of iron, steel and ferroalloys - and the mineral industries.10 More efficient energy and material use, and minimising waste, will be key to cutting these emissions, but the sector remains amongst the hardest to decarbonise.
To decarbonise the industrial sector, the share of electricity (powered by renewable energy) used in the sector would need to increase from 38% in 2019, to approximately 49% by 2030 and to between 69 to 82% by 2050. When combined with hydrogen and biomass, electrification penetration should reach up to 95% by 2050.
South Africa’s Post-2015 Energy Efficiency Strategy sets sectoral energy intensity improvement of 15% for industry and mining sectors by 2030, and aims to achieve this by implementing minimum energy performance standards (MEPS), amongst others.
South Africa's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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South Africa's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, shares of electricity, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for South Africa
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised industry sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
102
|
15 to
16
|
2 to
5
|
1 to
1
|
2035 to
2040
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-85 to
-84%
|
-98 to
-95%
|
-99 to
-99%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
38
|
48 to
49
|
64 to
70
|
69 to
82
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass
per cent
|
50
|
73 to
85
|
89 to
91
|
94 to
95
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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