What is South Africa's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Between 2000 and 2015 the average annual growth of South Africa’s net GHG emissions (including Forestry and Other Land Uses) was 1.43%, with the energy sector being the dominant contributor (78% of emissions in 2017).1 South Africa’s GHG emissions are predominantly CO₂ from fuel combustion, while Methane (CH₄) and Nitrous Oxide (N₂O) combined constitute less than a quarter of emissions.2 The power sector produces 38% of total GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF), followed by industry (energy use), transport and buildings sectors.3
Mining, mineral beneficiation and coal-to-liquid fuel processing industries are the main drivers of industry energy-related CO₂ emissions, which are directly related to the extraction and combustion of fossil fuels. These industries accounted for approximately 17% of total GHG emissions in 2017.
The LULUCF sector provided a small, but increasing sink for emissions between 2009 and 2017 due to increasing forest cover and a decline in wood losses, due to increasing electrification.4
South Africa's current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Latest available (negative) LULUCF data point from 2015
Data References
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Energy system
South Africa’s primary energy supply is dominated by domestic coal, crude oil (mostly imported), renewables, gas and nuclear.5 Despite a rapid increase in renewables driven by early rounds of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP), the proportion of renewables in the overall energy mix remains a tiny ~6.8% in 2017, while around 75% of total primary energy supply is from coal.6,7
Historically, the development of South Africa’s economy was driven by the exploitation of cheap coal. Energy intensive industries like iron, steel, chemicals, petrochemicals and mining still dominate its energy demand profile. The industry and transport sectors together consumed about 70% of energy supplied in 2016.8
On October 2020 the government announced a post-covid economic recovery plan. This plan does not support low carbon development, as the it continues support for carbon-intensive sectors like coal, oil and gas, and mining.9
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Fixed level target
NDC target
2021 updated NDC:
- A medium-term goal of 398-510 MtCO₂e/yr (incl. LULUCF) between 2020 and 2025.
- 350-420 MtCO₂e/yr (incl. LULUCF) between 2025 and 2030 which translates in 366-436 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF) or 20-33% below 2010 by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).10
- Conditional on international support.
Market mechanisms
- Not stipulated in 2021 NDC.
- The Carbon Tax Act came into effect on 1 June 2019, implementing an effective (taking into account offsets and allowances) carbon tax rate ranging from R6 to R48 per tonne of CO₂e emitted. By design it will not have any impact on the price of electricity during the first phase (ending December 2022) and payment of the first tax installment was deferred by three months (to 31 October 2020) as a pandemic relief measure.11,12
Long-term target
- South Africa’s Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) targets an emissions level of 212-428 MtCO₂e/yr (incl. LULUCF) by 2050, translating to 229-445 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF) or 21-59% below 2010 by 2050 (excl. LULUCF).13,14,15
Sectoral targets
Energy
- The Post-2015 National Energy Efficiency Strategy contains sector specific energy efficiency targets for industry, transport, public and commercial buildings, and agriculture to be achieved by 2030, but does not convert these into explicit emission reduction targets.16,17
Power
- The 2019 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) - the government’s capacity expansion plan for the electricity sector - introduced a carbon budget approach to constrain emissions from the sector to a cumulative 5470 MtCO₂ in the years leading up to 2050.
Transport
- In its Green Transport Strategy: 2018-2050 the Department of Transport committed to a 5% reduction of emissions in the transport sector by 2050.18
Industry
- No quantified sectoral target available.
Buildings
- No quantified sectoral target available.
Waste
- No quantified sectoral target available.
Agriculture
- No quantified sectoral target available.
LULUCF
- No quantified sectoral target available.