What is South Africa's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
South Africa is predominantly reliant on road travel for passengers and freight within and between its major metropoles and trade centres. This has resulted in the sector producing just over 13% of the country’s total CO₂ emissions (in 2017). Emissions increased from approximately 0.041 MtCO₂ in 2000 to 0.055 MtCO₂ in 2017.1
South Africa's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The transport sector is dominated by the use of fossil fuel-derived liquid fuels. The share of electricity and biofuels is minimal and there is no infrastructure to introduce hydrogen. In 2020, 78% of passenger transport was by road, with electric vehicles (EVs) making up only 0.06% of car sales.2
To achieve a 1.5°C compatible pathway, the transport sector’s fossil fuel reliance would need to be dramatically reduced for emissions to decline 51% to 77% from 2019 levels by 2030. However, the South African Department of Transport has only committed to a 5% emissions reduction from the transport sector by 2050.3
The 1.5°C scenarios analysed show a wide range of pathways leading to decarbonisation of the sector occurring between 2037 and 2062. Higher range of electricity penetration leads to a quicker decarbonisation of the sector (Low Energy Demand scenario). This pace of decarbonisation would only be possible with a rapid scaling up of the use of electricity, produced by renewables, in the sector (to between 70% to 97% by 2050).
South Africa's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for South Africa
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
57
|
13 to
28
|
2 to
18
|
0 to
14
|
2037 to
2062
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-77 to
-51%
|
-97 to
-69%
|
-100 to
-75%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
1
|
11 to
85
|
40 to
95
|
70 to
97
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
18
|
2 to
14
|
3 to
10
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
2 to
16
|
7 to
45
|
9 to
50
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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