Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

On September 2021, the Government submitted its updated NDC based on the Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) recommendations target of 350-420 MtCO₂e/yr including LULUCF, by 2030 and conditional on international support. This would translate in emissions reductions of 366-436 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF by 2030 or 20-33% below 2010 levels by 2030.¹

A 1.5°C consistent emissions pathway for South Africa would require emission reductions of 39-53% below 2010 levels by 2030 or 249-325 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (excluding LULUCF). The achievement of the most ambitious end of South Africa’s 2030 target (366 MtCO₂e, excl. LULUCF) would place the country very close to being on a domestic 1.5°C compatible pathway.

However, under current policies South Africa would, if it were to fully implement the Integrated Resources Plan (2019), achieve the higher bound of its NDC target which lies outside of the 1.5°C compatible range.²

South Africa's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

South Africa’s Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) targets an emissions level of 212-428 MtCO₂e/yr including LULUCF, translating in 229-445 MtCO₂e/yr excluded LULUCF by 2050 or 19-58% below 2010 levels.³^,⁴ In contrast, a 1.5°C compatible pathway requires South Africa to reach emissions no higher than 107 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050, excluding LULUCF which translates in 88% below 2010 levels.⁵

Our analysis suggests the energy sector would need to be the first sector to fully decarbonise by around 2050.

The majority of remaining GHG emissions will be from agriculture and industrial processes and will require negative emissions of 72-134 MtCO₂e by 2050 to achieve net zero GHG emissions in that same year. Models tend to rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. Given the limited historical sink from the land sector South Africa benefits (around –28 MtCO₂e/yr in 2015), the country will need to implement carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches to increase its sink through policy instruments fostering reforestation/afforestation. In addition, international support will need to be provided for technological carbon dioxide removal approaches such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or direct air capture and storage (DAC).

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

Decarbonisation of the power sector, the largest source of emissions, is fundamental to overall emissions reduction.

In 1.5°C compatible pathways, the share of fossil fuels in primary energy consumption would need to drop from more than 90% in 2017, to below 60% by 2030 and reach less than 5% by 2050. This could be possible through an extensive uptake of renewables: from less than 10% in 2017 to more than 60% by 2050 when combined with ~15% of other zero carbon technologies.

While South Africa’s climate change policy supports Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS), it is unlikely to be deployed due to high technology costs. However, with the rapidly declining costs of renewables, and given the large wind and solar potential in the country, it would still be possible to reach 1.5°C compatible pathways.⁶

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for South Africa. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	2010 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	530	518	304 249 to 325	160 102 to 166	93 65 to 107
Relative to reference year in %			-43% -53 to -39%	-70% -81 to -69%	-82% -88 to -80%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	441	431	252 193 to 266	91 42 to 127	32 12 to 73	2070
Relative to reference year in %			-43% -56 to -40%	-79% -90 to -71%	-93% -97 to -84%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: Climate Action Tracker 2021 update
- Download data as CSV

Climate Action Tracker. South Africa’s Presidential climate commission recommends stronger mitigation target range for updated NDC: close to 1.5°C compatible | Climate Action Tracker. (2021). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. South Africa 2020. Climate Action Tracker. (2020). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. South Africa 2020. Climate Action Tracker. (2020). ↩
Republic of South Africa. South Africa’s Low-Emission Development Strategy 2050. (2020). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches. ↩
Surridge, A. D. et al. CCUS Progress in South Africa. in 15th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies (GHGT-15) (2021). ↩

What is South Africa's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

South Africa's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

South Africa's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

South Africa's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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