What is Canada's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Canada
New 2035 NDC target not aligned with 1.5°C
Canada has submitted a new NDC for 2035, which aims to reduce emissions by 45-50% below 2005 levels, including LULUCF. This would need to be strengthened to reductions of at least 69% below 2005 levels to be aligned with 1.5ºC pathways. Further, Canada would need to strengthen its 2030 target and provide clarity on the expected role of LULUCF in meeting the targets.
Canada's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
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Long term strategy shows Canada may be banking on removals to achieve net zero
In 2021, Canada enshrined its target to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 into law. While it does not specify how much of the necessary reductions are expected to come from carbon dioxide removals, scenarios in Canada’s long term strategy rely on land-based and technological removals of up to 326 MtCO2e – over 40% of its total 2022 emissions – to achieve the 2050 net zero target.
1.5°C pathways show fossil gas phase out by 2030
Putting Canada on a 1.5°C aligned pathway would see fossil gas in the power sector falling immediately, effectively phasing out by 2030, reversing the historical trend of growing gas generation. However, Canada currently has nearly 28 GW of fossil gas operating capacity, with an additional 6 GW of new capacity announced or under development.