Canada

Last update: 1 December 2023

Economy wide

Canada’s updated NDC reduces the 2030 ambition gap compared to its 2017 NDC, but further reductions are still needed. The country would need to achieve up to 54-64% emissions reductions below 2005 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF, to get onto a 1.5°C compatible pathway. Canada is not on track to meet its new NDC target with its current policies likely to only achieve a 7% reduction in emissions by 2030 from 2005 levels, excluding LULUCF, falling far below its NDC target and a 1.5°C compatible pathway.¹

Canada's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

2005
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

2030 NDC

In July 2021, Canada updated its NDC target under the Paris Agreement setting an economy wide emission reduction target of at least 40-45% below 2005 levels by 2030, including an estimated LULUCF contribution of –27 MtCO₂e/yr.²^,³ This results in a target of 37-42% below 2005 levels by 2030 excluding LULUCF.⁴

Fair share

A fair share contribution to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement would require Canada to go further than its domestic target, and provide substantial support for emission reductions to developing countries on top of its domestic reductions.

Net zero GHG

Canada has a target of net zero GHG emissions by 2050 and in June 2021, passed legislation to enshrine this target into law.⁵^,⁶^,⁷ The extent to which the government intends to rely on the land sector as a sink (and therefore what residual emissions are expected) is unclear.

2050 Ambition

To be 1.5°C compatible, Canada will need to reduce its emissions to around 88-97% below 2005 by 2050 (excluding LULUCF).⁸ Canada will need to strengthen its 2030 target and implement additional policies to achieve its net zero GHG target.

Sectors

Power

To be 1.5°C compatible, Canada needs to phase coal out of its electricity supply by 2026 and natural gas between 2026-2030. The government’s current plans are not consistent with either benchmark.⁹
Its proposed coal phase out date is too late (2030 vs 2026) and the government plans to shift much of its coal-fired power generation to natural gas. This creates the risk of carbon-lock-in and stranded assets, and would likely prevent it from achieving a 1.5°C compatible pathway.
To get onto a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Canada’s power sector would need to be decarbonised around 2030, with renewable energy accounting for 90-99% of Canada’s power generation by 2030. As of 2017, 67% of Canada’s electricity comes from renewable sources, mostly from hydro, and 15% from nuclear.

Transport

Across all pathways, electrification plays an important role in decarbonising the transport sector. To be 1.5°C compatible, electricity needs to increase from 1% of the transport energy mix in 2019 to 16-24% by 2030 and 43-88% by 2050.
Canada has plans to decarbonise its transport sector, however, more will be needed to align with 1.5°C. In June 2021, the federal government brought forward its goal of zero emissions vehicles reaching 100% of new passenger vehicle sales to 2035, rather than 2040. Draft regulations for an electric vehicle (EV) sales mandate were published in December 2022.

Climate Action Tracker. Canada. CAT September 2020 Update. (2020). ↩
Office of the Prime Minister of Canada. Prime Minister Trudeau announces increased climate ambition.(2021). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. CAT Climate Target Update Tracker: Canada | July 2021 Update. (2021). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. CAT Climate Target Update Tracker: Canada | July 2021 Update. (2021). ↩
Government of Canada. Net-Zero Emissions by 2050. ↩
Canada Ministry of the Environment. Bill C-12: An Act respecting transparency and accountability in Canada’s efforts to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2050. (House of Commons of Canada, 2020). ↩
Government of Canada. Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act. in Bill C-12 (2021). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩
Government of Canada. Regulations Amending the Reduction of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal-fired Generation of Electricity Regulations. in Canada Gazette Part II, Vol. 152, No. 25, Regulation SOR/2018-263 (2018). ↩

What is Canada's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?