What is Canada's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Ambition Gap

Raising ambition

In February 2025, Canada submitted a new NDC for 2035 which targets emissions reductions of 45-50% below 2005 levels including LULUCF.1 The new NDC does not include updates to its target for 2030, which aims to reduce emissions by 40-45% below 2005 levels. When including LULUCF, neither target is 1.5°C aligned and the gap between targeted emissions and 1.5°C pathways grows from 2030 to 2035.2

When excluding LULUCF, the more ambitious end of Canada’s 2030 target narrowly aligns with 1.5°C pathways. However, there are significant uncertainties in LULUCF emissions estimates and Canada’s target does not specify how much of the reductions are expected to be achieved in the LULUCF sector.3

Current policy projections, excluding LULUCF, indicate Canada is not on track to achieve its 2030 or 2035 targets.4 These projections do not include the recent election of President Mark Carney or his removal of the consumer carbon tax.5 While this would be expected to shift emissions projections upwards, he has stated the tax would be replaced with other measures to promote energy efficiency and home retrofits that if implemented, would reduce emissions overall.

To align with 1.5°C pathways, Canada would need to provide clarity on its targeted emissions reductions excluding LULUCF in 2030, enhance 2035 ambition, and implement additional policies and actions In order to achieve its ‘fair share’ of climate action, Canada would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.

Canada's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

Target Year

LULUCF

*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.

  • Graph description

    The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

    Methodology (excluding LULUCF)

    Data References (excluding LULUCF)

Long term pathway

In 2021, Canada passed the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act, enshrining its target to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 into law.6

The law does not specify how much Canada plans to rely on LULUCF or other carbon dioxide removals (CDR). However, Canada’s 2022 updated long term strategy (LTS) provides scenarios for how the target may be achieved, all of which assume the LULUCF sector would be a 100 MtCO2 sink in 2050.7 Therefore, Canada’s net zero scenarios would result in emissions of 100 MtCO2e in 2050 when excluding LULUCF. Pathways indicate Canada would need to reduce non-LULUCF emissions to 62 MtCO2e by mid-century to be 1.5°C compatible.

Further, the updated LTS shows high uncertainty around the role of technological CDR in meeting the net zero target.8 On top of land-use removals, the LTS assumes an additional 201 MtCO2 of removals from direct air capture and 25 MtCO2 from bioenergy with CCS. Altogether, the LTS scenarios indicate Canada may plan to rely on removals for as much as 326 MtCO2e by/in 2050, equivalent to around 40% of its total 2022 emissions, to achieve its 2050 net zero target.

Relying heavily on CDR is a risky strategy, and developing contingency measures to reduce reliance on land-based and technological CDR would improve the robustness of Canada’s net zero target.

Canada's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Canada. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

Indicator
2005
Reference year
2023
2030
2035
2040
2050
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
761
698
278 to 381
192 to 266
104 to 168
28 to 67
Relative to reference year in %
-63 to -50%
-75 to -65%
-86 to -78%
-96 to -91%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
529
508
206 to 252
93 to 163
27 to 90
-44 to -1
Relative to reference year in %
-61 to -52%
-82 to -69%
-95 to -83%
-108 to -100%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

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