Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

Canada updated its NDC target under the Paris Agreement in July 2021 setting an economy wide emission reduction target of at least 40-45% below 2005 levels by 2030, including an estimated LULUCF contribution of –27 MtCO₂e/yr.¹ This corresponds to a 37-42% reduction below 2005 levels (excl. LULUCF), equal to 427-4657 MtCO₂e by 2030 (excl. LULUCF). However, our analysis of Canada’s current policies shows Canada is only on track to reduce emissions 7% by 2030 below 2005 levels (excl. LULUCF).²

Furthermore, neither its current policy projections nor its proposed new target are compatible with the domestic efforts required to limit warming to 1.5°C. Achieving this goal would require domestic emissions reductions of 59% below 2005 levels by 2030 (excl. LULUCF), equal to 299 MtCO₂e by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).

Decarbonising the power and transport sectors should be a priority and will make it possible to put emissions on a 1.5°C compatible track. Overall, emissions in the country should have already peaked by 2020.

A fair share contribution to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement would require Canada to go further than its domestic target, and provide substantial support for emission reductions to developing countries on top of its domestic reductions.

Canada's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

2005
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

In Canada’s target of net zero GHG by 2050 the role of the land sector to meet the target remains unclear. Excluding LULUCF, to be 1.5°C compatible, the country would need to target GHG emissions reduction of 91% below 2005 levels by 2050.³^,⁴ Remaining GHG emissions will need to be balanced through the use of carbon dioxide removal approaches, including sustainable a/reforestation, direct air capture of carbon dioxide, or sustainable bioenergy coupled with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

Remaining GHG emissions would come from mainly agriculture and waste given the higher share of methane and nitrous oxide emissions in these sectors. If the uptake of renewable energy in the primary energy supply is at the lower end of the range, then as much as 13% of the primary energy supply (equivalent to 0.8 EJ/year by 2050) would need to also have emissions offset using the above approaches.

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

Renewable energy needs to increase from 17% of the primary energy supply to 38-48% by 2030 to be compatible with 1.5°C pathways. If only low levels of renewable energy are achieved, greater deployment of negative emission technology, in the order of 0.2-0.6 EJ (2-10% of primary energy) by 2040 and 0.6-0.8 EJ (6-13% of primary energy) by 2050, will be needed to remain 1.5°C compatible. Given the unproven nature and costs of these technologies at scale, aiming for high levels of renewable energy use would reduce the risk of locking the country into a carbon intensive pathway.

Low energy demand scenarios combined with a higher uptake of renewable energy, of around 40% by 2030, would put the country on a 1.5°C compatible pathway without the need to rely on any negative emissions technology.

Prioritising renewables can also reduce the need for fossil CCS and nuclear. Fossil CCS in particular represents a potential mitigation burden, as these systems still result in carbon emissions that would need to be reduced to further efforts towards net zero emissions. Further, the relative cost trend between CCS in the power sector and renewables means that CCS in the power sector is increasingly unlikely to be able to ever compete with renewable energy.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Canada. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

2005
2010
2015

Indicator	2005 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	739	730	299 266 to 342	132 78 to 177	66 21 to 92
Relative to reference year in %			-59% -64 to -54%	-82% -89 to -76%	-91% -97 to -88%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	574	581	250 186 to 281	84 16 to 141	6 -15 to 47	2056 2044 to 2066
Relative to reference year in %			-56% -68 to -51%	-85% -97 to -75%	-99% -103 to -92%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: Climate Action Tracker 2021 update
- Download data as CSV

Office of the Prime Minister of Canada. Prime Minister Trudeau announces increased climate ambition.(2021). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Canada. CAT September 2020 Update. (2020). ↩
Government of Canada. Net-Zero Emissions by 2050. ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩

What is Canada's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Canada's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Canada's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Canada's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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