What is Canada's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Canada’s emissions in 2017 were estimated at 715 MtCO₂e (excl. LULUCF). Emissions in 2020 are estimated to drop to approximately 606-633 MtCO₂e (excl. LULUCF), with the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.1
In 2017, the power, transport and buildings sectors represented the largest shares of total emissions, accounting for around 28%, 25% and 13% of emissions respectively. Agriculture and industry processes each accounted for 8% of total emissions. Data revisions in Canada’s 2021 National Inventory Report indicate LULUCF emissions in recent years have been an emission source, rather than a sink as previously reported, and that these emissions have been on an upward trend.2
Canada’s 2016 Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change forms the basis for their targets and submissions in their NDC.3 In 2020, Canada adopted a new plan, “A Healthy Environment and a Healthy Economy”, to reach the 2030 NDC target and 2050 net zero target.4
Canada's current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector.
Data References
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Energy system
Canada’s primary energy use is highly reliant on gas and oil, contributing 35% and 34% respectively in 2017. The draft Clean Fuel Standard, which is expected to be finalised in late 2021, would require liquid fuel suppliers to cut carbon intensity of fuels they sell over time.5 The remaining energy mix is comprised of 17% renewables including biomass, 9% nuclear, and 6% coal. Current plans indicate that Canada intends to continue production of natural gas, particularly liquefied natural gas for export.6,7
In 2017, roughly 67% of electricity was generated by renewables, with the majority supplied by hydropower, and an additional 15% supplied by nuclear.8 Energy modelling by the Canada Energy Regulator show an increase in the share of renewable and nuclear generation to a total of 90% by 2050 in their Evolving Scenario that assumes increasing climate action.9 Coal, oil and gas account for 9%, 1% and 8% of present day generation, respectively, though Canada aims to phase out unabated coal by 2030.10
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Base year emissions target
NDC target
- 40-45% below 2005 by 2030 (incl. LULUCF).
- 36-41% below 2005 by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).
Market mechanisms
- Canada has not officially submitted its updated NDC target to the UNFCCC. Whether and the extent to which it intends to rely on market mechanisms to meet that target is unclear. In its original NDC submission, it said that it would explore the use of such mechanisms, depending on agreement of the international rulebook (which remains outstanding).
Long-term target
- Net zero GHG emissions by 2050.11
- Role of land sector in meeting target is unclear.
Sectoral targets
Energy
- Proposed CAD $ 170/tonne CO₂ nation-wide carbon price by 2023, increasing by CAD $ 15 per year from 2023 to 2030.12
Power
- Unabated coal phase-out by 2030.13
- 40-45% reduction in methane emissions from oil and gas by 2025 compared to 2012 levels, with plans to establish new targets for 2030 and 2035.14,15
Transport
- Draft Clean Fuel Standard to enact regulations on carbon intensity of fossil fuels through gradual annual reductions of permitted intensities.16
- 100% electric light-vehicle transport by 2035.17
Buildings
- Develop “net-zero ready” building codes to be adopted by 2030 for new buildings.
Waste
- Draft regulations on the creation of a voluntary federal offset scheme for industries not covered by carbon pricing (e.g. waste, agriculture and forestry).
Agriculture
- Draft regulations on the creation of a voluntary federal offset scheme for industries not covered by carbon pricing (e.g. waste, agriculture and forestry).
LULUCF
- Planting of 2 billion trees over the next decade.