What is Canada's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
In 2022, Canada’s total emissions (including LULUCF) were 760 MtCO2e – or about 8% below 2005 levels.1 The vast majority of these emissions are from the energy sector, which accounted for about three-quarters of total emissions in 2022. The largest source of energy emissions is from fossil fuel industries, mainly from oil and gas production, followed by the transport sector. Emissions from the power sector are relatively low, as hydropower makes up the majority of Canada’s power supply.2
In the land use sector, Canada’s vast forests remove and store significant amounts of carbon from the atmosphere. Despite these removals, the LULUCF sector is actually a net source of emissions, with the sector making up 7% of national emissions in 2022 – largely by emissions from Canada’s timber industry.3 Going forward, the sector has the potential to remain a source of emissions, or flip to become a sink.
Canada's 2022 GHG emissions
including LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
Data References
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Energy overview and main policy gaps
Canada’s primary energy supply is highly reliant on fossil gas and oil, contributing 40% and 33% respectively in 2023.4 The majority of fossil gas is consumed in the buildings sector, followed by industry, while oil is consumed largely in the transport sector. Renewables have supplied 16-18% of Canada’s primary energy since 1990.
Hydropower makes up the bulk of Canada’s renewable energy industry and supplied 55% of electricity in 2024.5 However, the reliability of this source has already been impacted by climate change, with hydropower falling from 60% in 2022 due to drought conditions.6,7 While Canada has generally been a net exporter of electricity to the US, this drop in hydropower along with lower fossil gas prices in the US shifted Canada to a net importer with the US for several months in 2023 and 2024.8
At the same time, other renewables are gaining ground in the power sector, reaching 10% in 2024, mostly from wind.9 Nuclear generation has remained fairly steady, supplying 14%. While the use of coal has declined significantly since the early 2000s, fossil gas use has continued to grow.
Targets and commitments
2030 Target in 2021 NDC:
As expressed by the country:
- At least 40-45% below 2005 levels by 2030 (including LULUCF)10
Re-expressed excluding LULUCF:
- 34-50% below 2005 levels by 2030 or 384-502 MtCO2e/yr11
2035 Target in 2025 NDC:
As expressed by the country:
- At least 45-50% below 2005 levels by 2030 (including LULUCF)12
Re-expressed excluding LULUCF:
- 39-55% below 2005 levels by 2030 or 342-465 MtCO2e/yr13
Long-term target
As formulated by the country:
- Net-zero GHG emissions by 205014