What is Canada's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Decarbonising the industry sector
Canada’s industry emissions from energy accounted for 11% in 2022 and its emissions from industrial processes accounted for 7%.1 This does not include emissions from fossil fuel industries, which accounted for just over a quarter of Canada’s emissions in 2022.
Canada's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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About half of Canada’s industrial energy demand was met with fossil fuels, mostly fossil gas.2 Electricity provided 35% of demand with the remainder largely met with biomass. The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway, which limits CDR needs through deeper cuts to fossil fuel use, effectively phases out fossil fuels from industry by around 2045. This is achieved largely through increased electrification, reaching 71% of the industry energy mix by 2050, and a modest increase in the use of bioenergy.
Other analysed pathways show a larger role for hydrogen in industry, reaching up to 16% of the industrial energy mix. For both hydrogen and electricity to achieve economy-wide emissions reductions, shifting to renewables for hydrogen production and in the power sector is critical.
Across all pathways, emissions from industrial processes steeply decline, falling 73-85% below 2023 levels.
Analysis by the Canadian Climate Institute found that Canada’s industrial carbon pricing systems are projected to be the single largest driver of emissions reductions out to 2030.3 These systems set performance standards for industrial facilities and requires those which are less efficient than the standard to pay while those which are more efficient can sell or save credits. While President Mark Carney has ended the consumer carbon tax, the federal industrial carbon pricing system has not been removed.4
Canada's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Canada's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Canada
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Industry sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
86
|
30 to
46
|
10 to
35
|
-4 to
18
|
-3 to
3
|
2036 to
2044
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-65 to
-47%
|
-88 to
-59%
|
-105 to
-79%
|
-103 to
-97%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
35
|
37 to
50
|
45 to
54
|
47 to
58
|
52 to
71
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
%
|
48
|
61 to
73
|
70 to
81
|
83 to
86
|
86 to
96
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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