Canada’s updated NDC reduces the 2030 ambition gap compared to its 2017 NDC, but further reductions are still needed. The country would need to achieve up to 52-63% emissions reductions below 2005 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF, to get onto a 1.5°C compatible pathway. Canada is not on track to meet its new NDC target with its current policies likely to only achieve a 14-17% reduction in emissions by 2030 from 2005 levels, excluding LULUCF, falling far below its NDC target and a 1.5°C compatible pathway.3
Canadaʼs total GHG emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
Displayed values
Reference year
Reference year
2005
1.5°C emissions level
−59%
NDC
−42%
Ambition gap
−17%
1.5°C compatible pathways
Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
Current policy projections
1.5°C emissions range
Historical emissions
2030 NDC
In July 2021, Canada updated its NDC target under the Paris Agreement setting an economy wide emission reduction target of at least 40-45% below 2005 levels by 2030, including an estimated LULUCF contribution of -27 MtCO₂e/yr.1,2 This results in a target of 36-41% below 2005 levels by 2030 excluding LULUCF.2
4 Government of Canada. Regulations Amending the Reduction of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal-fired Generation of Electricity Regulations. in Canada Gazette Part II, Vol. 152, No. 25, Regulation SOR/2018-263 (2018).
6 Canada Ministry of the Environment. Bill C-12: An Act respecting transparency and accountability in Canada’s efforts to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2050. (House of Commons of Canada, 2020).
7 Government of Canada. Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act. in Bill C-12 (2021).
19 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.
Fair share
A fair share contribution to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement would require Canada to go further than its domestic target, and provide substantial support for emission reductions to developing countries on top of its domestic reductions.
Net zero GHG
Canada has a target of net zero GHG emissions by 2050 and in June 2021, passed legislation to enshrine this target into law.5,6,7 The extent to which the government intends to rely on the land sector as a sink (and therefore what residual emissions are expected) is unclear.
2050 Ambition
To be 1.5°C compatible, Canada will need to reduce its emissions to around 88-94% below 2005 by 2050 (excluding LULUCF).19 Canada will need to strengthen its 2030 target and implement additional policies to achieve its net zero GHG target.
To be 1.5°C compatible, Canada needs to phase coal out of its electricity supply by 2026 and natural gas between 2026-2030. The government’s current plans are not consistent with either benchmark.4
Its proposed coal phase out date is too late (2030 vs 2026) and the government plans to shift much of its coal-fired power generation to natural gas. This creates the risk of carbon-lock-in and stranded assets, and would likely prevent it from achieving a 1.5°C compatible pathway.
To get onto a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Canada’s power sector would need to be decarbonised around 2030, with renewable energy accounting for 91-99% of Canada’s power generation by 2030. As of 2017, 67% of Canada’s electricity comes from renewable sources, mostly from hydro, and 15% from nuclear.