What is Canada's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
The power sector would need to be fully decarbonised by 2030 and contribute to negative emissions thereafter to be on 1.5°C compatible. Achieving such a pathway will require ramping up renewable energy in Canada’s power generation from 67% in 2017, to 91–99% by 2030, an earlier phase-out of coal than is currently planned (by 2026, not 2030), and phasing out natural gas between 2026-2033, which the government has not yet considered. Continuing to invest in fossil fuels puts the country at risk of carbon lock-in and high-cost stranded assets.1
Canada's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
The power sector could reach a fully decarbonised power sector by 2030 and become a source of net negative emissions thereafter. To be 1.5°C compatible, the carbon intensity of the power sector would need to reach –10 to –20 gCO₂e/kWh by 2050. This would require Canada to achieve 91-99% renewable energy in the power mix by 2030 and 99-100% by 2050 and contribute to negative emissions thereafter, allowing to balance emissions from other sectors such as agriculture.
Canada's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Canada to be on the order of USD 10 to 48 billion by 2030 and 11 to 64 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors and growing energy demand. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the later can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time compared with a current policy scenario. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Canada's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Canada
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
128
|
2 to
4
|
-8 to
0
|
-22 to
-4
|
2029 to
2030
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-98 to
-97%
|
-106 to
-100%
|
-117 to
-103%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
7
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
11
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2027 to
2034
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
66
|
90 to
99
|
97 to
100
|
99 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
18
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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