What is Canada's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Decarbonising the power sector
Canada currently relies heavily on hydropower for over half of its electricity generation, supported mainly by nuclear power and a growing contribution from fossil gas.1 In recent years, drought conditions have threatened the availability of hydropower to meet demand as well as exports.2,3
Canada's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
-
Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.
Methodology
Data References
-
Analysed 1.5°C pathways indicate Canada’s already dwindling share of coal would continue to fall from 4% in 2024 and be effectively phased out between 2025 and 2030, in line with Canada’s plan to phase out coal by 2030.4,5 Pathways further show a rapid reversal in the growing trend for fossil gas would be needed, with fossil gas generation falling from 13% of the power mix in 2022 to below 4% by 2025 and effectively phasing out by 2030.6 However, Canada has 6 GW of fossil gas capacity announced or under development, in addition to nearly 28 GW of operating capacity at the start of 2025.7
With the phase out of coal and gas, the power sector would be decarbonised by 2030 across all three illustrative pathways. Canada previously targeted achieving a decarbonised ‘net-zero’ electricity grid by 2035, but its 2024 Clean Electricity Strategy and Clean Electricity Regulations shifted this out to 2050.8
Canada's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
-
Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
-
Power capacity investments
As of 2024, Canada had 110 GW of renewable capacity installed, of which 83 GW was hydropower.9 In our results, hydropower is included in ‘Other renewables’, along with bioenergy and geothermal which contributed 3 GW and 0.1 GW.
To decarbonise the power sector by 2030, Canada would need to procure new renewable generation capacity, which is done on the provincial level. Across 1.5°C pathways, solar and wind capacities overtake other renewables to account for the majority of installed renewable capacity over the coming decades.
Given the recent impacts of drought on hydropower generation, expanding wind and solar capacity can improve of Canada’s power system resilience.10 In the Deep Electrification pathway, ‘other renewables’ capacity only increases slightly. Meanwhile, solar and wind capacity expands significantly to meet the high levels of electricity demand seen in this pathway. This gives the pathway the highest investment requirements of the analysed pathways at an average USD 23 bn/year from 2026-2030, falling to USD 14 bn/year from 2031-2040 and USD 8 bn/year from 2041-2050.
By contrast, the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway shows the lowest requirements, particularly from 2026-2030, at an average of USD 12 bn/year in this period. While this pathway shows the smallest increase in wind and solar capacity, from 24 GW in 2024 to about 70 GW by 2030, Canada is not on track to align with this pathway with only 6 GW of solar and wind capacity currently procured and scheduled to come online by 2030.11
Canada would need additional investments in grid and storage capacity which are not included in these results.
Canada's renewable electricity investments and capacities
Billion USD / yr
-
Graph description
Average annual investments in power sector renewable electricity capacity and cumulative installed power capacities across time under 1.5°C compatible pathways downscaled at country levels.
Methodology
-
1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Canada
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Power sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
106
|
1 to
3
|
-4 to
0
|
-5 to
0
|
-6 to
0
|
2030
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-99 to
-97%
|
-104 to
-100%
|
-105 to
-100%
|
-106 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
%
|
4
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
%
|
13
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of renewable energy
%
|
69
|
92 to
93
|
95 to
97
|
96 to
97
|
98 to
99
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
-
Methodology
Data References
-