What is Canada's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
In 2019, the transport sector was responsible for a quarter of Canada’s total emissions (excl. LULUCF). While the sector’s emissions intensity improved marginally (dropping 3% between 1990 and 2019), absolute transport emissions have increased by 42% over the same period.
Canada's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Across all pathways, electrification plays an important role in decarbonising the transport sector. To be 1.5°C compatible, electricity increases from 1% of the transport energy mix in 2019 to 16-24% by 2030 and 43-88% by 2050. Scenarios with lower electrification rates rely more heavily on hydrogen and biofuels to reduce emissions. Hydrogen and electricity will help decarbonise the transport sector only if they are themselves produced from renewable energy sources.
Canada has plans to decarbonise transport, however, more will be needed to align with 1.5°C. In June 2021, the federal government brought forward its goal of zero emissions vehicles (ZEVs) reaching 100% of new passenger vehicle sales to 2035, rather than 2040. Adopting a ZEV mandate or other policy tool to meet this goal would be an important next step. Draft regulations for an electric vehicle (EV) sales mandate were published in December 2022.1 Canada plans to reduce transport emissions by incentivising retrofits and encouraging the use of lower emissions fuels in freight,2 supporting EV uptake through tax incentives,3 and investing in zero-emissions public transport infrastructure.4,5
Canada's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Canada
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
192
|
56 to
99
|
12 to
39
|
5 to
9
|
2051 to
2056
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-71 to
-48%
|
-93 to
-80%
|
-97 to
-95%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
1
|
16 to
24
|
36 to
65
|
43 to
88
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
3
|
5 to
6
|
8 to
18
|
13 to
37
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
2 to
16
|
8 to
47
|
12 to
49
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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