What is Canada's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Decarbonising the transport sector
Canada’s transport sector consumes more energy than any other sector in Canada and was the second largest source of emissions in 2022 at 21% of total emissions (including LULUCF).1 In the same year, oil accounted for 87% of energy consumed in the sector, followed by fossil gas at 7% and biofuels and electricity at 4% and 1%, respectively.2 With the exception of 2020’s strong decline in transport demand driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, transport energy demand and emissions have continued to increase.3
Canada's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Across all analysed 1.5°C pathways, reductions in transport energy demand are a significant driver of emissions reductions. This is seen most strongly in the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway which sees energy demand fall by nearly 40% from 2022 to 2050. Adopting low-emission transport options such as public transit, cycling and intercity rail can reduce demand in line with this pathway.
In addition to reduced demand, analysed 1.5°C pathways achieve a decarbonised transport sector by 2050 by meeting demand with electricity and biofuels rather than oil. In the Deep Electrification pathway, electricity meets 52% of transport energy demand by 2050. While the share of electricity in transport is currently very low, Canada has adopted legally binding targets for 100% of new passenger car and light-duty truck sales to be electric vehicles (EVs) by 2035.4 The government has further incentivised the expansion of EV charging infrastructure though public subsidies and the Clean Fuel Regulations.5
Analysed 1.5°C pathways also see increased biofuel use to displace oil; however, this presents sustainability challenges such as land-use changes for biofuel production. Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulations and British Columbia’s Low Carbon Fuel Standards aim to mitigate these impacts by requiring lifecycle assessments to encourage sustainable biofuel feedstocks.6
Canada's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Canada
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Transport sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
164
|
137 to
148
|
92 to
118
|
44 to
74
|
5 to
27
|
2050
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-16 to
-10%
|
-44 to
-28%
|
-73 to
-55%
|
-97 to
-84%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
1
|
5 to
7
|
11 to
20
|
22 to
36
|
42 to
52
|
|
Share of biofuels
%
|
4
|
3 to
8
|
4 to
11
|
10 to
14
|
25 to
42
|
|
Share of hydrogen
%
|
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
2
|
1 to
4
|
2 to
8
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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