What is Bosnia and Herzegovina's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Economy wide

Submitted in 2021, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s (BiH) Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) sets an unconditional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target of 12.8% by 2030 relative to 2014 levels excluding LULUCF.1

Bosnia and Herzegovina's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

  • Graph description

    The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

    Methodology

    Data References

2030 ambition

Conditional on international support, BiH aims to reduce emissions by 17.5% below 2014 levels by 2030 excluding LULUCF, or to about 22 MtCO₂e.2 To be in line with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, BiH would need to reduce emissions to 12-14 MtCO₂e by 2030, or a reduction of 46-56% below 2014 levels.

Long-term strategy

As a contracting party to the Energy Community, an international organisation consisting of the European Union and its neighbouring countries, BiH has signed the “Sofia Declaration” which commits the country to reach net zero emissions by 2050. However, BiH has not yet implemented the necessary domestic measures that would allow it to achieve this goal.3 BiH’s NDC aims to reduce emissions by 50% below 2014 by 2050 (unconditionally) and 55% (conditional on international support).

Long-term 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that BiH would need to reduce its GHG emissions to around 2-5 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050, which is equivalent to an 80-92% reduction in emissions compared to 2014, excluding LULUCF.

Net zero CO2

BiH’s NDC includes investments of EUR 8.5 billion for decarbonising the power sector by 2030. However, the government also plans to install additional coal capacity within the same timeframe.4 The NDC calls for international financial support for a just transition of the country’s substantial domestic coal industry.

Sectors

Power

  • In its draft NECP, BiH commits to increasing the share of renewable energy in its gross final energy consumption to 43.6% by 2030.

  • According to its NDC, the Bosnian government plans to install a further 1050 MW of coal capacity. Its draft NECP envisions no additional coal capacity, but this is yet to be finalised.

  • 1.5°C compatible pathways would require coal — which contributed 63% of the country’s power supply in 2019 — to be phased out by 2030 with the share of renewable energy increasing to 88-100% of the power mix in 2030.

Buildings

  • About 58% of the total energy consumption in BiH is consumed by residential buildings, which are generally poorly insulated.

  • 1.5°C compatible pathways would require greater electrification of the sector, ranging from 57-58% by 2030 and 69-78% by 2050.

  • BiH only has renovation policies for government buildings, which means that there are no incentives for greater energy efficiency or the construction of zero-emission buildings.

Industry

  • Industrial carbon emissions from energy demand more than halved between 1990 and 2019, and process-related emissions fell by about 10% in the same period, partly due to greater electrification and fuel switching, but also due to lower levels of industrial activity.

  • To be in line with 1.5°C pathways, electrification in the BiH industry sector should reach 46-60% by 2030 and 80-87% by 2050, with a concurrent fall in the use of unabated fossil fuels.

  • BiH currently has no energy efficiency or decarbonisation policies in place targeting the industrial sector. However, the sub-national governments of FBiH and RS have implemented energy strategies.

Transport

  • BiH has no national targets for decarbonising the transport sector, which is almost entirely dependent on oil as 98% of passenger kilometres are travelled by road, with the remainder by rail.

  • 1.5°C compatible pathways foresee an increasing role for electrification in the sector, with a share of up to 42% by 2050.

  • BiH does not have specific targets for decarbonising the transport sector nor measures to incentivise electrification and a modal shift from road to rail. The subnational government of FBiH provides subsidies for the purchase of electric vehicles of up to EUR 5000, a programme which was extended in 2023.

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