What is Bosnia and Herzegovina's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

Bosnia and Herzegovina’s (BiH’s) Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), submitted in April 2021, includes an unconditional emissions reduction target of 12.8% below 2014 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF.1 This would result in emissions levels of 22.7 MtCO₂e in 2030. On the condition that it receives adequate international support, the country commits to emissions reductions of 17.5% below 2014 levels by 2030, which translates to around 21.5 MtCO₂e in 2030 (excluding LULUCF). To be in line with 1.5°C compatible pathways, BiH would need to reduce emissions to 12-14 MtCO₂e in 2030, or a reduction of 46-56% below 2014 levels.

The current NDC does not specify actionable policies to achieve the 2030 targets, other than EUR 8.5 billion in investments for power sector decarbonisation, and an intention to increase the LULUCF carbon sink by 0.093 MtCO₂e.2 The draft NECP, yet to be finalised, provides a clearer roadmap as to how BiH intends to reduce emissions by 2030. These include renewable energy targets, phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies, improving energy efficiency, and promoting electric vehicles.3

While BiH’s NDC foresees 1050 MW of new coal capacity to come online by 2030,1 the draft NECP plans for no new coal capacity.4 Any additional coal capacity runs counter to climate goals and risks the creation of fossil fuel lock-in and stranded assets. The country is heavily dependent on coal production and consumption, with the sector directly employing 17,000 people, along with significant indirect employment opportunities.5 To support the replacing coal with cleaner energy sources, BiH asks for international financial help to carry out a just transition and to increase climate ambition.

Bosnia and Herzegovina's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

  • Graph description

    The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

    Methodology

    Data References

Long term pathway

While BiH has not yet submitted a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC, as a contracting party to the Energy Community and signatory of the Sofia Declaration, it has pledged to reach net zero emissions by 2050. In its NDC, the country commits to reducing emissions by 50% below 2014 by 2050. On the condition that it receives adequate international support, it commits to raising the target to 55%. 1.5°C compatible pathways would require BiH to reduce GHG emissions by 80-92% by 2050 below 2014 levels. These figures exclude LULUCF sinks, which according to the government, are expected to increase by 0.093MtCO₂e by 2030, bringing LULUCF sinks to around 6 MtCO₂e. No further LULUCF targets are announced beyond 2030.

Bosnia and Herzegovina's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Scaling

Energy system transformation

BiH’s energy system is heavily dominated by fossil fuels which accounted for around 76% of the energy mix in 2019. Coal made up 52% of the energy mix, mostly consumed in the power and industry sectors. Most of the coal-fired power in BiH is sourced from domestic production. Oil accounts for the second largest share in the total primary energy mix with around 22% in 2019 and was mostly used in the transport sector. This was followed by biomass, accounting for 17% of the total energy mix mostly due to its role in the buildings sector.6

Power sector decarbonisation would have the most significant impact on reducing the country’s GHG emissions. Through increased electrification of end-use sectors like transport, buildings and industry, decarbonisation of the power sector also acts as a lever for emissions reductions in other sectors.7

Some of the pathways analysed here show coal being phased out of the overall energy mix by 2040. Reducing and ultimately phasing out the use of coal would not only reduce GHG emissions but also help the country improve its air quality. As BiH has serious air pollution issues, decarbonisation will bring significant health co-benefits.8,9

Bosnia and Herzegovina's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Bosnia and Herzegovina. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

Indicator
2014
Reference year
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
26
30
13
12 to 14
6
4 to 8
3
2 to 4
Relative to reference year in %
-50%
-56 to -46%
-76%
-86 to -69%
-89%
-93 to -84%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
20
23
11
8 to 12
4
1 to 7
1
-1 to 2
2056
2044 to 2070
Relative to reference year in %
-46%
-60 to -39%
-81%
-96 to -65%
-96%
-103 to -88%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

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