What is Bosnia and Herzegovina's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Emissions from the power sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) fell precipitously in the 1990s on account of the civil war, after which they increased steadily reaching 12.7 MtCO₂e in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, there was little change in the power sector’s emissions intensity, which remained around 725 gCO₂/kWh. The share of coal in the country’s power mix fell from 72% in 1990 to 63% in 2019, accompanied by an increase in renewable energy generation from 21% to 37%, primarily consisting of hydropower. The role of gas in the BiH power sector is minimal, remaining at under 1% since its introduction in 2009. BiH is a net power exporter, exporting around 25% of its domestically produced power to other European countries, primarily Croatia and Serbia, but also Italy and Switzerland. Energy exports represent 7% of BiH’s total exports.¹1^,22 The recent energy crisis has led many households to switch from gas-based appliances to electricity, currently subsidised by the government. However, this has led to an overload of infrastructure not yet designed for high consumption, reducing the country’s capacity to export energy.³3

All 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here foresee a greater role for renewables by 2030, between 53% and almost 100% renewable energy generation, and a decreased role for coal. However, according to its NDC the Bosnian government intends to install an additional 1050 MW of coal capacity by 2030,⁴4 powered primarily by domestic sources. The power sector could be fully decarbonised in the 2030s if BiH adopts stringent renewable targets and abandons plans to install more coal capacity.⁵5^,66

BiH’s climate policies are strongly influenced by the country governance structure . The energy strategies of both entities – the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) and the Republika Srpska (RS) – foresee a long-term role for coal in their respective power sectors, recommending further investment into coal mines to increase their productive capacity and efficiency.

BiH has pledged in the Sofia Declaration of 2020 and as part of the Energy Community to fully decarbonise by 2050 which includes shutting down coal mines and coal power plants. However, the country’s actions thus far run counter to this pledge, and put it off-track for a 1.5°C compatible power sector decarbonisation in the 2030s.