What is Bosnia and Herzegovina's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Current Situation

Emissions profile

The last emissions inventory year officially reported by BiH is 2018.1 That year, energy needs were the primary driver of emissions in BiH at 80% of total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF. Within the energy sector, power accounted for 74% of energy emissions (59% of overall GHG emissions). This high share is mostly due to the power sector’s heavy reliance on coal. The transport sector contributes around 15% of energy emissions (12% of GHG emissions) on account of its heavy reliance on oil. Around 2% of total emissions are fugitive emissions from coal mining.2

Industrial processes account for around 9% of total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF. The primary industries in the country are the production and processing of iron, steel, aluminium, lime, and cement.3 In 2018, the agriculture sector contributed 6% of total GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF), while the waste sector accounted for 5% of the overall emissions.4

Bosnia and Herzegovina's current GHG emissions

MtCO₂e/yr

Energy system

BiH is a contracting party to the Energy Community – an international organisation consisting of the European Union and its neighbouring countries – and a signatory to the Sofia Declaration. The membership commits BiH to reach net zero emissions by 2050, but the country has yet to adequately translate the Energy Community goals into local policy.5 According to its NDC, BiH intends to increase coal capacity by 1050 MW by 2030, making it one of only two countries in the region (alongside Serbia) to plan for even more coal use. However, its draft NECP - yet to be finalised – envisages no new coal plants. This is a welcome development, though greater clarity regarding the future role of existing coal plants such as Tuzla 3 and Tuzla 4 is needed.6

The draft NECP plans to add 2000 MW of renewables, most of which will be solar.7 This increased renewable energy capacity is designed to meet the draft NECP’s target of a 43.6% share of renewables in gross final energy consumption by 2030. Potential exists for strengthened targets, as the government refers to fossil gas as “a transitional fuel towards cleaner energy sources.”8 By Replacing coal directly with clean energy sources, BiH can accelerate the clean energy transition without relying on fossil gas and risking heavy investments in stranded assets. The draft NECP also aims to increase the share of renewables in the transport sector to 8.4% by 2030.

Targets and commitments

Economy-wide targets

Target type

Base year emissions target

NDC target

Unconditional NDC Target:

  • 12.8% below 2014 levels by 2030 (excl. LULUCF), or 22.7 MtCO₂e/yr9
    Conditional NDC Target
  • 17.5% below 2014 levels by 2030 (excl. LULUCF), or 21.5 MtCO₂e/yr10

Market mechanisms

Introducing an emissions trading scheme when progress is made on EU accession as part of the Acquis Communautaire. However, none planned until then.11

Long-term target

BiH has indirectly committed to net zero emissions through the Sofia Declaration12 and has set 2050 GHG emissions reduction targets in its NDC. They include an unconditional target of 50% below 2014 levels by 2050 (excl. LULUCF), or 13 MtCO₂e/yr and a conditional target of 55% below 2014 levels by 2050 (excl. LULUCF), or 11.7 MtCO₂e/yr.13

Sectoral targets

Power

  • Investment of EUR 8.5 billion by 2030 in power sector decarbonisation.14

LULUCF

  • Increase of carbon sink by 0.093 MtCO₂e by 2030.

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