New Zealand

Last update: 1 June 2021

Economy wide

1.5°C compatible pathways for New Zealand require a 51% reduction in emissions from 2005 levels excluding LULUCF (or 41 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030). New Zealand will not meet its current NDC target following current policy projections. The country will need to consider more stringent emissions reduction to be compatible with the 1.5°C temperature limit. The New Zealand government is expected to release an emissions reduction plan in May 2022. However, the government plans to rely on international offset credits for meeting over two thirds of the required reductions under its NDC.¹^,²^,³

New Zealand's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

2005
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

2030 NDC

In 2021, New Zealand submitted an updated strengthened NDC, Zealand First/New Zealand NDC November 2021.pdf increasing its emissions reduction target from 30% to 50% below gross 2005 levels by 2030 including LULUCF. The last NDC targeted an estimated level of emissions in 2030 of 68 MtCO₂e/yr, and the updated NDC 51 MtCO₂e/yr (24% lower than the last NDC).

However, the accounting of the target is misleading and equates to 22% below 2005 levels in net emissions.⁴ It sets the 2030 net emissions target based on gross 2005 levels. Including the forestry carbon sink in 2005 and excluding it in 2030 creates a higher baseline. New Zealand also uses a different accounting approach for forestry which effectively further reduces the target.

Fair share

A fair share contribution to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement would require New Zealand to go further than its domestic target, and provide substantial support for emission reductions to developing countries on top of its domestic reductions.

Net zero

New Zealand has legislated its ‘net zero’ emissions goal by 2050 in its Zero Carbon Act. However, the goal is not truly net zero as it exempts methane emissions, significantly weakening the target, particularly when considering its agricultural sector is its largest source of emissions.⁵ The target translates to 49-68 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 excluding LULUCF, which is only a reduction of 16-40% compared to 2005 levels, and could be achievable without additional effort.⁶

2050 Ambition

In contrast, Paris Agreement compatible pathway shows that New Zealand’s remaining emissions (excluding LULUCF) by 2050 should be around 16 MtCO₂e/yr (11-26 MtCO₂e/yr), which is less than half the country’s 2050 target and translates to 81% (69-87%) below 2005 levels. When considering projected LULUCF sinks, net zero GHG could be reached by around 2040.⁷^,⁸ New Zealand has a higher-than-average residual level of greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 due to the high proportion of agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions.

Sectors

Power

Key policies that would be required to accelerate the transition to net zero emissions in the power sector include phasing out coal and gas from the sector within the next few years. New Zealand needs to reduce its power emissions intensity by 94% from 2019 levels by 2030 reaching 10g CO₂/kWh by 2030.
To be consistent with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, New Zealand needs to transition to 100% renewable energy in the power sector by around 2030. This would require bringing forward the current 2035 target of 100% renewable electricity generation.
New Zealand’s power mix was 82% renewable in 2019, mainly met through hydro power. Ramping up and diversifying its share of renewable energy sources (e.g. wind, solar) and energy efficiency measures, while accelerating the electrification of other sectors, will be key to reaching 100% renewable generation. Sector coupling (integrating energy consuming sectors), through combining high levels of renewable energy penetration in the grid with the electrification of transport, industry and buildings can lead to high levels of economy wide decarbonisation and boost green jobs and grid system flexibility.

Buildings

Buildings require energy for appliances, heating and cooling of space and heating water. Electricity in the buildings sector contributes to around 68% in 2019, which would need to increase to 82-84% by 2030 and up to 95% in 2050 to be 1.5 compatible.
A 100% renewable power sector by 2030 could largely decarbonise the sector.
New Zealand could raise ambition and set targets for non-public buildings; introduce policies supporting energy efficient appliances; building renovations for energy efficiency; electrification of heating, cooling, cooking; and rooftop solar with battery storage.

Industry

Full decarbonisation of both industry energy related emissions and industry process emissions is possible by 2050.
The majority of the 1.5°C pathways show energy related industry emissions continuing to decline. Industry process related emissions decrease in all 1.5°C scenarios, but decline rapidly in the high CDR reliance scenario.
Renewable hydrogen can displace fossil fuels as a feedstock for industrial processes, and constitute 10% of industry energy demand by 2050.
New Zealand has implemented a range of industry related climate policies, including an emissions trading scheme, hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) phase-down, and a prohibition to install new coal boilers in manufacturing and production.

Transport

The 1.5°C scenarios show that electricity, hydrogen and biofuels can play a part in decarbonising the transport energy mix.
In 2019, the transport sector was 100% fuelled by fossil fuels, such as petroleum and diesel. As the power sector decarbonises, it will be a driver to decarbonise the transport sector, displacing fossil fuel-based cars and trains.
Hydrogen made from renewables could represent 16% of the transport energy mix by 2030 and up to 76% by 2050. Biofuels could represent up to 8% as early as 2030. These fuels are particularly relevant for long distance or heavy transport for example aircrafts, shipping and long-haul land transport.
The transport sector can reach full decarbonisation by 2060, following the low energy demand scenario.

Ministry for the Environment. Te hau mārohi ki anamata Transitioning to a low-emissions and climate-resilient future Have your say and shape the emissions reduction plan. (2021). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. New Zealand. September 2021 update. Climate Action Tracker. (2021). ↩
Daalder, M. New Paris Target Might Actually Reduce Emissions, A Bit. Newsroom, (2021). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. New Zealand. November 2021 update. Climate Target Update Tracker. Climate Action Tracker. (2021). ↩
Ministry for the Environment. Te hau mārohi ki anamata Transitioning to a low-emissions and climate-resilient future Have your say and shape the emissions reduction plan. (2021). ↩
Beehive. New Zealand to phase down use of HFCs from 2020. Beehive. (2018). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩
According to national projections, LULUCF emissions could reach –36 to –41 MtCO₂e by 2040. See the Climate Action Tracker assessment on New Zealand (July 2020 update) for assumptions on LULUCF projections. ↩

What is New Zealand's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?