What is New Zealand's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
New Zealand
Urgent action needed to cut transport emissions in New Zealand
New Zealand’s transport sector is the second largest (and fastest growing) emissions source. 1.5°C compatible pathways show fossil fuel reliance in the transport sector would need to fall from 99% to around 98% by 2030 and further to 69% by 2050. Cutting emissions from this sector will require strong and consistent policies that accelerate electrification, improve fuel efficiency, and reduce fossil fuel reliance.
New Zealand's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
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2035 target not aligned with 1.5°C
New Zealand’s NDC aims to reduce net GHG emissions to 51 – 55% below gross 2005 levels by 2035, short of the 58% cut needed to align with the 1.5°C pathways (including LULUCF). Agricultural emissions – mostly methane (though not separately assessed) and over half of total emissions – were 7% above 2005 levels in 2022 but would need to fall 8–26% below 2005 levels in 2035 (excl. LULUCF).
Growing energy demand requires large investment in wind and solar
New Zealand’s renewable capacity reached around 8 GW in 2023. To align with the 1.5°C pathways, it needs to increase by 38–63% by 2030. This would require an average investment of roughly USD 1 bn in renewable capacity annually between 2026-2030. Wind and solar would eventually surpass hydropower in capacity, making up over three-quarters of New Zealand’s renewable capacity by 2050 through large-scale buildout.
Fossil fuels phase-out requires greater policy certainty
To align with 1.5°C pathways, coal must be effectively phased out by 2025 and gas by 2030 from the power sector. Frequent policy reversals have created significant uncertainty. While progress in electrification and transport is encouraging, recent setbacks risk slowing progress, such as the expansion of coal mining, the reversal of the offshore oil and gas exploration ban, the removal of EV subsidies, and the withdrawal of industrial decarbonisation funds.