What is New Zealand's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Decarbonising the industry sector
New Zealand’s GHG emissions from industrial processes have been declining since 2015, but direct CO₂ emissions from industry energy demand have continued to increase slightly. In 2022, the industrial sector accounted for 15% of the country’s total emissions, split between energy use (9.5%) and industrial processes (6%). To align with the Paris Agreement, New Zealand will need to achieve steep cuts in CO₂ emissions from industrial energy demand between 2025 and 2030.
New Zealand's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Across all pathways, coal must be effectively phased out between 2025 and 2030. Under the Deep Electrification pathway, 70% of industrial energy use would come from clean sources made up of electricity (45%), biomass (20%), and hydrogen (4%) by 2030. By contrast, the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway has marginally higher emissions from industry energy demand but relies on deeper cuts to fossil fuels and minimal use of CDR, resulting in steeper emissions reductions from industrial processes.
The current government’s Electrify NZ initiative in the New Zealand's second emissions reduction plan 2026–30, supported by the Fast-track Approvals Act 2024, aims to enable power and other end-use sectors to electrify, develop bioenergy, and commits to double renewable energy by 2050 across different sectors.1 While these are positive steps toward a 1.5°C aligned pathway, many of these plans remain under development.2 Moreover, the removal of the previous Government Investment in Decarbonising Industry Fund adds to the policy uncertainty surrounding industrial decarbonisation.3 New Zealand would need to provide greater policy certainty to accelerate the decarbonisation of its industrial sector.
New Zealand's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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New Zealand's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for New Zealand
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Industry sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
7
|
2 to
4
|
1 to
3
|
0 to
2
|
0 to
0
|
2035 to
2044
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-71 to
-43%
|
-86 to
-57%
|
-100 to
-71%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
30
|
34 to
45
|
42 to
49
|
42 to
54
|
47 to
67
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
%
|
44
|
59 to
70
|
67 to
78
|
80 to
82
|
82 to
92
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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