What is New Zealand's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Buildings
The emissions intensity of energy demand in the building sector has been increasing over the last decade.
New Zealand's energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the buildings sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The energy mix for the building sector is mainly based on electricity contributing a 68% share in 2019. A 1.5°C compatible pathway would lead to a level of electrification of around 82-84% by 2030, and up to 95% in 2050. The high share of renewable energy planned for the power generation (90% by 2025, 100% by 2035) would ensure the building sector is largely decarbonised. New Zealand would therefore likely see a pathway of declining emissions in this sector from current levels.
Increasing these renewable targets to a 1.5°C compatible 100% by 2030, along with increasing the use of hydrogen, could further decarbonise the sector.1 Our analysis shows that hydrogen could represent 4% of the building energy mix in 2030, and 16% by 2050. However, full electrification of buildings (heating, cooling, cooking) would remove the need to replace gas with hydrogen.
New Zealand has a Carbon Neutral Government Programme with a target for a carbon neutral public sector by 2025 where agencies will have to offset emissions they do not cut.2 New non-residential public sector buildings (valued over NZD 25m) will require a minimum 5-star green rating by 2022. The GreenStar rating entails an assessment across 10 different categories from direct impacts such as water use or materials to indoor air quality, emissions and energy use for example. The State Sector Decarbonisation Fund aims to replace public sector coal boilers although the government has not specified with which technology.3 The Building for Climate Change Program aims to set requirements for carbon emissions in building construction and decommissioning, and set a framework for operational (energy and water) efficiency.4
Policy options for New Zealand include setting targets for non-public buildings; supporting energy efficient appliances; building renovations for energy efficiency; electrification of heating, cooling, cooking; and rooftop solar and battery storage.
New Zealand's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and hydrogen in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for New Zealand
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised buildings sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
2
|
1 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
2035 to
2037
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-54 to
-31%
|
-73 to
-68%
|
-88 to
-88%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
68
|
82 to
84
|
91 to
92
|
93 to
95
|
|
Share of heat
per cent
|
3
|
0 to
2
|
0 to
3
|
4 to
4
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
4
|
0 to
12
|
0 to
16
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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