What is New Zealand's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
Raising ambition
New Zealand updated its first NDC in November 2021, targeting reductions in net GHG emissions to 50% below gross 2005 levels by 2030.1 In 2025, it submitted a new NDC target of reductions in net GHG emissions to 51–55% below gross 2005 levels by 2035.2 Its NDCs are following a gross-net approach, meaning it measures emissions reductions against a historical gross emissions baseline while allowing the use of carbon removals to achieve its targets.
For comparability to our 1.5°C pathways, we assess New Zealand’s targets as 30% below 2005 levels by 2030 and 30–37% by 2035 including LULUCF. These targets are not aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, which would require deep and rapid emissions reductions this decade to at least 47% below 2005 levels by 2030 and 58% by 2035, including LULUCF.
When excluding New Zealand’s land sink, the 2030 target is marginally aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, but the 2035 target falls short by 4 MtCO2e/yr, indicating that New Zealand would need to increase its emissions reduction ambition to remain on track with 1.5°C pathways. New Zealand’s emissions under current policies are only projected to fall 14-19% below 2005 levels by 2030 and 13-26% by 2035, excluding LULUCF. 3
New Zealand's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
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Long term pathway
In November 2021, New Zealand submitted its commitment to reach net zero for all GHG emissions (excluding biogenic methane) and a 24–47% reduction in biogenic methane below 2017 levels by 2050 in its Long-Term Low-Emissions Development Strategy. 4 This international commitment was also enshrined into law in 2019.5 These targets translate to 44–48 MtCO2e, or 51–56% below 2005 levels by 2050 (excluding LULUCF).6
A 1.5°C compatible pathway would require New Zealand’s remaining emissions to fall to 33 MtCO2e/yr by 2050 – a 61% reduction below 2005 levels. This would include Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) but exclude LULUCF and novel carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches. New Zealand’s 2050 target is not aligned with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, due to high residual agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions.
New Zealand's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for New Zealand. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2005
Reference year
|
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
86
|
78
|
43 to
56
|
33 to
49
|
28 to
42
|
21 to
33
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-50 to
-35%
|
-62 to
-43%
|
-67 to
-51%
|
-76 to
-62%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
34
|
29
|
10 to
15
|
4 to
11
|
-1 to
5
|
-5 to
0
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-71 to
-56%
|
-88 to
-68%
|
-103 to
-85%
|
-115 to
-100%
|
||
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
61
|
57
|
5 to
32
|
3 to
26
|
-2 to
19
|
-8 to
15
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-92 to
-48%
|
-95 to
-57%
|
-103 to
-69%
|
-113 to
-75%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
10
|
9
|
-39 to
-24
|
-30 to
-23
|
-30 to
-22
|
-29 to
-18
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-490 to
-340%
|
-400 to
-330%
|
-400 to
-320%
|
-390 to
-280%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
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Methodology
Data References
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