What is New Zealand's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
1.5°C compatible pathways
New Zealand updated its NDC in November 2021 with a stronger 2030 target. The updated NDC is not Paris Agreement compatible, and it is equivalent to a 38% reduction from 2005 levels excluding LULUCF.
The Minister for Climate Change requested the Climate Change Commission to advise on a 1.5°C consistent target. The Commission did not recommend a specific target, but that it should be “much more than 36%” below 2005 levels by 2030, leaving the decision to policy makers.1 These recommendations informed the NDC update, which failed to achieve a 1.5°C consistent target. 1.5°C compatible pathways require New Zealand to reduce emissions by 51% below 2005 levels by 2030, equivalent to around 41 MtCO₂e in 2030 excluding LULUCF.
The target has questionable environmental integrity on two counts.2 It sets the 2030 net emissions target based on gross 2005 levels. Including the forestry carbon sink in 2005 and excluding it in 2030 creates a higher baseline. Secondly, New Zealand uses different accounting approach for forestry which effectively further lowers the target.
New Zealand released a consultation document on the first emissions reduction plan to meet its 2022-2025 emissions budget, seeking ideas for emissions reductions, with the plan scheduled for release end of May 2022.3 However, the government has been clear that it will have to meet as much as two thirds - or ~100MtCO₂e - of its target through buying international carbon offsets.4
New Zealand emissions need to immediately peak and rapidly decline and it needs to ramp up its climate policy and targets. A key focus should be agriculture, as this sector is responsible for the largest share of emissions. Other key sub sectors include transport and energy use in industry as high emissions intensive sectors.5
New Zealand's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Long term pathway
In 2019, New Zealand legislated its “net zero” emissions target into law under the Climate Change Response (Zero Carbon) Amendment Act. The target aims for net zero emissions of all greenhouse gases other than biogenic methane6 by 2050. The Act also targets 24-47% below 2017 biogenic methane emissions by 2050.
Setting a more lenient target for the agriculture sector is not aligned to a Paris Agreement compatible pathway when considering the huge share of emissions produced. To align to a Paris Agreement compatible pathway, New Zealand should start reducing GHG emissions rapidly to around 16 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 excluding LULUCF which translates to 81% below 2005 levels. In contrast, the current long term targets are estimated to reach 49 to 68 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 excluding LULUCF, which is only a reduction of 16-40% compared to 2005 levels.7 When considering projected LULUCF sinks, net zero GHG could be reached before 2040.
Taking a slower pathway or delaying peaking emissions would require costly negative emissions technologies to compensate. Most of the analysed 1.5°C compatible pathways show a fully decarbonised energy sector by 2040 and contribute negative emissions thereafter. The largest share of remaining emissions by 2050 will be from agriculture. Paris Agreement compatible scenarios show agriculture emissions ranging from 22-36 MtCO₂e by 2050, mostly coming from methane, which need to be compensated by negative emissions
New Zealand's primary energy mix
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Energy system transformation
New Zealand needs to decarbonise its energy sector, including industry, transport and power to bring the country in line with a 1.5°C compatible pathway. An effective phase out of unabated fossil fuels is possible before 2050. Unabated fossil fuels (mainly natural gas) represented 60% of primary energy in 2019, and need to contract to between 22-43% by 2030. By 2030, renewables could represent up to 78% of primary energy, and up to 97% by 2050.
A fossil fuel phase out in primary energy by 2050 would require decarbonising the power sector from 82% renewables in 2019 to near 100% renewables by 2030. New Zealand would need to bring forward its current 100% renewables target by at least five years in order to align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway. The scale up of renewables is vital to decarbonise other sectors as they become electrified.
Transport and energy use in industry could be decarbonised through electrification, sector coupling and replacing fossil fuel feedstocks with renewable hydrogen. Energy efficiency measures could also reduce the demand for energy and the reliance on fossil fuels.
Some of the analysed scenarios show the option of deploying negative emissions technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) almost immediately, and fossil fuels carbon capture and storage in future. These are highly unlikely, due to the high penetration of renewables, the unproven feasibility of BECCS, and the high costs of the technology.
New Zealand's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for New Zealand. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2005
Reference year
|
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
82
|
82
|
41
35 to
48
|
26
20 to
33
|
16
11 to
26
|
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-51%
-57 to
-42%
|
-69%
-76 to
-59%
|
-81%
-87 to
-69%
|
|||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
38
|
37
|
16
13 to
18
|
6
2 to
9
|
1
-2 to
4
|
2058
2046 to
2066
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-57%
-67 to
-51%
|
-84%
-95 to
-77%
|
-98%
-107 to
-90%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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