What is New Zealand's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
While emissions intensity has remained stable, CO₂ emissions of energy demand of the transport sector have been increasing by 17% between 2014 and 2019.
New Zealand's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
-
Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
-
In 2019, the sector was 100% fuelled by fossil fuels, such as petroleum and diesel.
The 1.5°C scenarios show that electricity, hydrogen and biofuels can play a part in decarbonising the sector energy mix. The transport sector can reach full decarbonisation by 2060, following the low energy demand scenario. Hydrogen made from renewables could represent 16% of the transport energy mix by 2030 and up to 76% by 2050. Biofuels could represent up to 8% as early as 2030. These fuels are particularly relevant for long distance or heavy transport for example aircrafts, shipping and long-haul land transport.
However, the pathways here underestimate the potential of electric vehicles which can replace fossil fuel cars and trains, and will likely be the more economical option.
New Zealand has a target for government fleet vehicles to be emissions free by mid-2025 “where practicable.”1 They also targeted for 64,000 EVs registered in New Zealand by the end of 2021,2 supported by an EV subsidy scheme “Clean Car Discount” which was in force between July 2021 to March 2022.3 The Ministry of Transport sought consultation in 2021 on a draft policy investigating several decarbonisation pathways for the transport section including the phasing out of internal combustion engines (ICE) imports by 2035.4 New Zealand does not have CO₂ emissions standards for cars, but standards are under consideration by the country’s parliament.5
New Zealand's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
-
Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
-
1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for New Zealand
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
16
|
7 to
11
|
3 to
11
|
2 to
6
|
2058 to
2063
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-59 to
-31%
|
-81 to
-34%
|
-86 to
-60%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
2
|
4 to
8
|
8 to
17
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
8
|
3 to
6
|
7 to
8
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
2 to
16
|
8 to
61
|
31 to
76
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
-
Methodology
Data References
-