What is Namibia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Namibia
Economy wide
If the full 91% reduction is implemented, emissions would fall to 8 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF) in 2030, which is within the 1.5°C compatible range. The conditional target is equivalent to a 34% reduction below 2015 levels (excl. LULUCF).
Namibia's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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NDC
Namibia submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in July 2021, aiming for emissions levels 91% below business as usual projections in 2030 (incl. LULUCF). Without assistance, Namibia has only committed to a 14% reduction below business as usual projections. The difference of 77% is conditional on international support.
1.5°C compatibility
If the full 91% reduction is implemented, emissions would fall to 8 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF) in 2030, which is within the 1.5°C compatible range. The conditional target is equivalent to a 34% reduction below 2015 levels (excl. LULUCF).
Long term pathway
To date, Namibia has not articulated a long-term or net zero strategy. A 1.5°C compatible pathway sees Namibia reduce its total CO₂ excluding LULUCF to 0-1 MtCO₂/y by around 2050. By 2050, greenhouse gas emissions (excl. LULUCF) decline 46-67% below 2015 levels. Remaining emissions are largely harder-to-abate agricultural emissions (primarily methane).
Sectors
Power
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The power sector accounts for less than 1% of Namibia’s emissions – very low due to high amounts of hydropower (64% of the power mix in 2016), the small size of the grid, and a reliance on imported electricity.
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Coal plays a minor supporting role in the electricity generated in Namibia, but it is the primary source of the electricity imported from South Africa.
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Zero emissions power could be achieved by 2025-2027 by continuing to scale up renewables to 99% by 2027.
Buildings
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Direct CO₂ emissions from the building sector were under 1% of Namibia’s total emissions in 2015.
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In 2019, biomass made up 98% of final energy consumption in buildings, and it continues to dominate in the majority of scenario mix projections in 2030, 2040, and 2050.
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Only in the low energy demand scenario does biomass lose its prime role in 2050 to electricity, hydrogen, and heating networks. This change would need to occur rapidly between 2040-2050.
Industry
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Process emissions amounted to around 2% of total emissions in 2015.
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1.5°C pathways show that electricity, hydrogen, and biomass use in this sector would need to increase from 44% in 2019 to 54-60% by 2030, and 85-89% by 2040.
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This level of increased use of electricity, hydrogen, and biomass would enable the sector to achieve full decarbonisation between 2037-2040.
Transport
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Direct emissions from the transport sector contributed 13% of total CO₂ emissions in 2017, amounting to just under 2 MtCO₂.
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Namibia’s transportation sector relies almost entirely on imported fossil fuels to meet energy demand.
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The 1.5°C pathways show that increasing the share of electricity, hydrogen, and biofuels in the mix from 0% in 2019 to 23-30% by 2030, and further to 72-81% by 2040 would enable the sector to reduce emissions to zero 2047-2050.