What is Namibia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

Namibia’s updated NDC includes an overall mitigation target to reduce emissions to 91% below business as usual (BAU) emissions in 2030, when including LULUCF. The government expects BAU emissions in 2030 to rise “up to 24.1 MtCO₂e/yr”, therefore, if successfully mitigated, emissions in 2030 would be 2.2 MtCO₂e/yr.1

Namibia undertakes to mitigate only 14% of the 91% target unconditionally. The remaining 77% forms the conditional part of its target and requires international support.

Namibia’s official communications identify the AFOLU sector as the key driver of emission reductions. In the NDC update (2021) the government projects that this one sector would account for emissions reductions of 78.7% below BAU by 2030. These reductions would result from land use and forestry measures. Agriculture still produces emissions (predominantly methane).

Due to this high reliance on the land use sector, the conditional portion would amount to a 34% reduction below 2015 levels by 2030 when excluding LULUCF. This is equivalent to emissions of 8 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF) in 2030, 1 MtCO₂e below the 1.5°C compatible emissions level of 9 MtCO₂e/yr.

Namibia's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

  • Graph description

    The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

    Methodology

    Data References

Long term pathway

As of 16 December 2022, Namibia has not communicated a long-term strategy or set a net zero target. A 1.5°C compatible pathway could be achieved if Namibia was able to reduce its total CO₂ sufficiently to 0-1 MtCO₂/yr by around 2050. By 2050, greenhouse gas emissions (excl. LULUCF) decline 46-67% below 2015 levels. Remaining emissions are largely harder-to-abate agricultural emissions (primarily methane).

Namibia's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Scaling

Energy system transformation

The energy system is dominated by the use of liquid fuels, predominantly used in the transport sector. Namibia’s NDC estimates that the energy sector would be responsible for emissions reductions of 11.6% below BAU in 2030.2

Expanding access to electricity in the rural areas and providing additional capacity for economic expansion, without also increasing GHG emissions, necessitates increasing the share of renewables in the total primary energy supply (TPES). From 2014-2019 the share of renewables in TPES increased from 35% to 39%.3

Across all analysed 1.5ºC pathways, renewable energy (incl. biomass) increases in the primary energy mix out to 2050. Analysed pathways show that for Namibia to rapidly increase energy supply and stay within a 1.5°C pathway, higher energy demand would need to be met with a rapid increase in renewable energy. These pathways that show more renewables also show higher electrification of end-use sectors.

Namibia's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Namibia. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

Indicator
2015
Reference year
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
13
12
9
8 to 10
6
6 to 8
5
4 to 7
Relative to reference year in %
-31%
-36 to -21%
-49%
-56 to -38%
-62%
-67 to -46%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
4
4
3
2 to 3
1
1 to 2
0
0 to 1
2064
Relative to reference year in %
-25%
-41 to -18%
-69%
-84 to -54%
-89%
-98 to -70%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

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