Economy wide
If the full 91% reduction is implemented, emissions would fall to 8 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF) in 2030, which is within the 1.5°C compatible range. The conditional target is equivalent to a 34% reduction below 2015 levels (excl. LULUCF).
Namibiaʼs total GHG emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
- 1.5°C compatible pathways
- Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
- Current policy projections
- 1.5°C emissions range
- Historical emissions
NDC
Namibia submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in July 2021, aiming for emissions levels 91% below business as usual projections in 2030 (incl. LULUCF). Without assistance, Namibia has only committed to a 14% reduction below business as usual projections. The difference of 77% is conditional on international support.
1.5°C compatibility
If the full 91% reduction is implemented, emissions would fall to 8 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF) in 2030, which is within the 1.5°C compatible range. The conditional target is equivalent to a 34% reduction below 2015 levels (excl. LULUCF).
Long term pathway
1 Republic of Namibia. Namibia’s NDC Update. (2021).
2 Republic of Namibia. Fourth Biennial Update Report (BUR4) to the UNFCCC. (2021).
3 Ministry of Mines and Energy. National Energy Policy. (2017).
4 United Nations Environment Programme. Atlas of Africa Energy Resources. (2017).
5 IEA. Data & Statistics – IEA. https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-browser?country=WORLD&fuel=Energy consumption&indicator=ElecConsPerCapita (2021).
6 Net Zero Tracker. Namibia profile. (2022).
7 Ministry of Mines and Energy. National Renewable Energy Policy. (2017).
8 IRENA. Energy Profile: Namibia. (2022).
9 Namibia Power Corporation. NamPower – Ruacana Power Station. (2022).
10 Republic of Namibia. Fourth National Communication to the UNFCCC. (2020).
11 There is no data for the commercial and public buildings sector before 1996.
12 Note that a Carbon Tax – starting at N$40 per g/km of CO₂ in the 2016-2020 transition period – is mentioned in the 4th Biennial Update Report (BUR4), published in early 2021, however, there is no mention of any extension in the NDC submitted to the UNFCCC in late 2021.
Sectors
Power
- The power sector accounts for less than 1% of Namibia’s emissions – very low due to high amounts of hydropower (64% of the power mix in 2016), the small size of the grid, and a reliance on imported electricity.
- Coal plays a minor supporting role in the electricity generated in Namibia, but it is the primary source of the electricity imported from South Africa.
- Zero emissions power could be achieved by 2025-2027 by continuing to scale up renewables to 99% by 2027.
Buildings
- Direct CO₂ emissions from the building sector were under 1% of Namibia’s total emissions in 2015.
- In 2019, biomass made up 98% of final energy consumption in buildings, and it continues to dominate in the majority of scenario mix projections in 2030, 2040, and 2050.
- Only in the low energy demand scenario does biomass lose its prime role in 2050 to electricity, hydrogen, and heating networks. This change would need to occur rapidly between 2040-2050.
Industry
- Process emissions amounted to around 2% of total emissions in 2015.
- 1.5°C pathways show that electricity, hydrogen, and biomass use in this sector would need to increase from 44% in 2019 to 54-60% by 2030, and 85-89% by 2040.
- This level of increased use of electricity, hydrogen, and biomass would enable the sector to achieve full decarbonisation between 2037-2040.
Transport
- Direct emissions from the transport sector contributed 13% of total CO₂ emissions in 2017, amounting to just under 2 MtCO₂.
- Namibia’s transportation sector relies almost entirely on imported fossil fuels to meet energy demand.
- The 1.5°C pathways show that increasing the share of electricity, hydrogen, and biofuels in the mix from 0% in 2019 to 23-30% by 2030, and further to 72-81% by 2040 would enable the sector to reduce emissions to zero 2047-2050.