What is Namibia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
In 2020, Namibia’s electricity demand was 597 MW with an annual growth rate of 3%.1 According to the National Integrated Resource Plan (NIRP) revised in 2016, peak demand is projected to rise to 931 MW in 2025 and 1348 MW in 2030.
On the supply side, Namibia has only four major power generating stations, with a combined installed capacity of about 500 MW.
The Ruacana Hydroelectric Power Station (330 MW), on Nigeria’s Northern border with Angola, is the core of the country’s domestic power supply.2 As a ‘run-of-the-river’ scheme it is highly dependent on rainfall in the Southern Angolan catchment area, which makes Namibia’s electricity grid subject to drought-related strains.
Other power stations are a coal fired power station in Windhoek (Van Eck) and two diesel powered stations – the Paratus and Anixas stations - only used in emergencies due to the cost of use. From 2015-2017, six solar power plants were commissioned with a total capacity of 29.5 MW. Even so, Namibia’s demand still outstrips its supply.3
This means imported electricity dominates Namibia’s power mix – in the decade to 2017, Namibia imported nearly 60% of its electricity supply, mostly from South Africa, where electricity is predominantly produced using coal, but also from other countries in the Southern Africa Power Pool.4,5
Namibia’s 2021 updated NDC includes mitigation measures such as implementing a renewable energy feed-in tariff and adding renewable energy capacity. According to the updated NDC, these measures add up to nearly 700 MW of renewable energy capacity and a mitigation potential of 0.5 MtCO₂e.6
Namibia's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
Given the small scale of the current grid and the dominance of hydro in Namibia’s power sector, the carbon intensity of electricity needs to reduce from just 60 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to zero between 2025-2027 to be 1.5°C compatible. This would be driven by the phase out of both coal and other unabated fossil fuels from the power mix by no later than 2030, as well as increasing renewable energy to 100% of the power mix by the same year.
Namibia's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Namibia to be on the order of USD 0.1 to 0.5 billion by 2030 and 0.1 to 1 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, and low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors, growing energy demand, and expansion of electricity access. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time. See the power section for capacities deployment under the various models.
Namibia's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Namibia
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
65
|
-18 to
1
|
-21 to
-1
|
-10 to
-8
|
2025 to
2027
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-128 to
-98%
|
-133 to
-102%
|
-116 to
-113%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
4
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
95
|
100 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
5
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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