What is Pakistan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Pakistan
Stronger NDC needed to be 1.5°C compatible
To align with 1.5°C, Pakistan's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would need to decrease by 7-29% below 2015 levels by 2030 (excluding LULUCF). In contrast, the conditional 2021 NDC targets an increase in emissions of 86% by 2030. Achieving 1.5°C compatible emissions reductions would require a considerable ramp-up of ambition.
Pakistan's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Expanding coal power pushes 1.5°C further away
Government plans to quadruple coal-fired power capacity (2.3 GW in 2023) to meet electricity demand growth – despite a previous moratorium on new coal power plants – would lock Pakistan into emissions-intensive electricity decades to come. Coal accounted for 19% of Pakistan’s energy mix in 2019, and expanding coal-fired generation is inconsistent with a 1.5°C pathway while also jeopardising Pakistan’s clean energy goals. 1.5°C compatible pathways show coal generation falling below 1% by 2030, with renewables taking up the slack to make up 80% of Pakistan’s power mix by 2030.
Decarbonising the transport sector to reduce air pollution
Pakistan's transport sector is entirely reliant on fossil fuels. The sector is a leading driver of local air pollution in the country and also contributed to 13% of GHG emissions in 2019 excluding LULUCF. Under 1.5°C compatible pathways, transport electrification reaches at least 26% by 2050.