What is Pakistan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Pakistan
Expanding coal-fired power pushes 1.5°C further away
Government plans to quadruple coal-fired power capacity from 2.3 GW in 2023 to meet electricity demand growth – despite a previous moratorium on new coal power plants. This would lock Pakistan into emissions-intensive electricity for decades to come. 1.5°C compatible pathways show coal generation falling from 16% in 2022 to below 1% by 2030, with renewables making up 80% of Pakistan’s power mix by 2030.
Pakistan's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Aligning with 1.5°C can reduce air pollution and health impacts from transport sector
Pakistan's transport sector is entirely reliant on fossil fuels. The sector is a leading driver of local air pollution and contributed 11% of GHG emissions in 2022 (excluding LULUCF). Under 1.5°C compatible pathways, transport electrification reaches 63% by 2050. Enhancing energy efficiency, upgrading fuel standards and accelerating EV adoption will cut emissions, improve air quality, and reduce health impacts.
Solar is a clean and affordable solution for promoting universal power access and ensuring national energy security
Expanding non-biomass renewables, especially solar energy, offers a clean and affordable path to universal power access, reduces household air pollution, and strengthens Pakistan’s energy security and economic resilience. The consequence of Pakistan’s heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels—reflected in the USD 12 billion oil import bill in the first nine months of FY 2025 and the major 2023 power outage—highlights the urgency of accelerating the transition. The 1.5°C-aligned Net-Zero Commitments pathway would see around USD 11 billion in annual wind and solar investments through 2050, require substantial international support.