What is Pakistan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Decarbonising the transport sector
Pakistan’s transport sector is almost fully reliant on fossil fuels, with a very low electric vehicle (EV) penetration rate. Transport accounted for 11% of national GHG emissions and about 30% of CO₂ emissions in 2022 (excluding LULUCF).1,2 The sector’s heavy dependence on imported oil carries a significant financial burden, with import costs reaching USD 1.3 bn per month.3,4
Pakistan's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Registered road vehicles more than tripled between 2011 and 2021, driving 98% of transport total CO₂ emissions in recent years.5,6 The vehicle fleet is dominated by two-wheelers (78%), which contribute substantially to emissions and air pollution.7 With one of the lowest urban rapid transit ratios in the Asia-Pacific region, pollution from Pakistan’s road transport can be linked to an estimated 128,000 deaths annually from air pollution-related illnesses.8,9,10,11 A transition to clean mobility can lower emissions and reduce air pollution altogether.
In the Deep Electrification pathway, which best captures the falling costs of renewables, the sector starts to gradually electrify reaching roughly 13% by 2030, 40% by 2040 and ultimately electricity accounts for 68% of the transport energy mix by 2050, with oil’s role substantially decreasing over time. This pathway would also require investments in the still-outdated transmission and distribution systems to facilitate the additional electricity and could result in reduced air pollution and ease the import-related financial burden.
Pakistan aims for 30% of new vehicle sales to be electric by 2030 and plans to install 3000 charging stations, though progress has been limited.12 The government also seeks to enhance energy efficiency and upgrade fuel standards to Euro-5/6, yet faces technological and financial constraints.13 Additional measures can include expanding urban mass transit, modernising railways to increase the freight share from road to rail, and promoting R&D in green hydrogen.14 Achieving these would require investments of USD 57 billion by 2030 and a further USD 92.6 billion by 2035, largely dependent on international support.15
Pakistan's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Pakistan
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
58
|
37 to
55
|
37 to
53
|
28 to
41
|
14 to
25
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-36 to
-5%
|
-36 to
-9%
|
-52 to
-29%
|
-76 to
-57%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
0
|
2 to
13
|
4 to
23
|
9 to
40
|
26 to
68
|
|
Share of biofuels
%
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
15
|
|
Share of hydrogen
%
|
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
2
|
1 to
6
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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