What is Pakistan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Achieving 1.5°C would see Pakistan’s transport sector gradually electrify, though at a slower pace than developed countries due to lower relative incomes and power shortfall.⁵5 In the Net-Zero Commitments pathway (which reaches global net zero CO₂ emissions around 2050 through stringent climate policies and innovation) the share of oil in the transport energy mix starts declining immediately, with a 24% reduction below 2019 levels by 2050. Electricity, hydrogen, and biofuel would replace oil in a 1.5°C compatible transport sector, making up a third of the transport energy mix by 2050.

While the Deep Electrification pathway shows high rates of electrification, it also shows a short-term increase in fossil gas use in the transport sector, which would then need to decrease significantly by 2050. Other pathways show this can be avoided through some use of hydrogen and biofuels as well as measures to reduce energy demand, such as investment in public transport. Under the 1.5°C compatible pathways, electricity, hydrogen and biofuels make up to 69% of the transport energy mix by 2050.

Pakistan has numerous opportunities to accelerate its transportation sector transition, such as enforcing tighter fuel efficiency standards, developing public transportation, and promoting a shift towards cleaner modes of transport. Road transport is one of the main contributors to Pakistan’s air pollution.⁶6^,77 A transition to clean mobility can lower emissions and reduce air pollution altogether.

Oil consumption, and therefore emissions, post-2050 could further be reduced by the introduction of synthetic fuels, which are not captured in these pathways.