What is Pakistan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

In 2022, fossil fuels supplied over 70% of Pakistan’s industrial energy demand, with coal and gas each making up about one-third. As a net importer of both fuels, Pakistan’s industries face price volatility and energy security risks.⁴4^,55 Cement production, heavily dependent on imported coal, is a major source of industrial emissions and vulnerability to global price swings.⁶6^,77^,88^,99

The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway limits reliance on carbon dioxide removal technologies through deeper cuts to fossil fuel use. Under this pathway, emissions from industrial energy demand fall by 95% below 2021 levels by 2050, driven by a coal phase-out by 2040 and the near elimination of oil and gas use by mid-century. Electrification rises to 53% of the industrial energy mix by 2050 (13% in 2022), while bioenergy expands from 15% in 2022 to 42%. Reliance on bioenergy raises potential land-use and air pollution concerns, and it is critical that it is sustainably sourced under any 1.5°C pathway.

Pakistan aims to cut 35 MtCO₂e by 2030 through improved industrial processes, efficient appliances, and stronger demand-side management.¹⁰10 While these measures can contribute to industrial decarbonisation, phasing out coal in the industrial energy mix remains the key challenge. A fair and just phase-out – ensuring energy access and protecting communities from adverse economic impacts – could ease the public fiscal burden from the imported fuels and accelerate the transition.

Although not assessed here under industry emissions, direct emissions from Pakistan’s fossil fuel production – mainly fugitive emissions – accounted for about 4% of the national total in 2022.¹¹11 Reducing fossil fuel use and expanding renewables can cut fugitive emissions and air pollution while improving Pakistan’s energy security and macroeconomic stability.