What is Pakistan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway limits reliance on extremely expensive carbon dioxide removal technologies through deeper cuts to fossil fuel use. Under this pathway, electrification and hydrogen use gradually increase to 56% of the industrial energy mix by 2050. The share of bioenergy grows from 20% in 2019 to 42% by 2050, which raises concerns regarding land use and air pollution. Following this pathway would see industrial energy demand's emissions intensity decreasing by 98% below 2019 levels by 2050. Emissions from industrial processes – most of which come from the mineral industry sector – follow a similar trend, dropping by 62% below 2019 levels by 2050.⁸8^,99

While we do not assess direct fossil fuel emissions associated with the national production of gas, oil and coal, these emissions account for 4% of Pakistan’s emissions, largely due to fugitive emissions.¹⁰10 The reduction in fossil fuel use, coupled with a widespread switch to renewables, would also reduce fugitive emissions from fossil fuel production, as well as from air pollution. This would also improve energy security and Pakistan’s macroeconomic situation.

To align with 1.5°C, the government could build upon the framework outlined in its National Climate Change Policy by implementing economic incentives for emission reductions, encouraging technological switching, and promoting energy efficiency.¹¹11 Pakistan has one of the highest fossil fuel subsidies as a share of GDP among developing Asian countries.¹²12 If their phase-out is implemented in a fair and just manner, guaranteeing access to energy and protecting communities from adverse impacts, it can help alleviate public fiscal burden and contribute to accelerating the transition.