What is Pakistan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
Raising ambition
Pakistan's 2021 NDC includes an unconditional target to reduce emissions by 15% below a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario, along with a conditional target for an additional 35% reduction below BAU, which is contingent on international support.1 However, the BAU scenario may overstate expected emissions as it is based on economic growth assumptions – 9% per year – which far exceed historical trends as well as other forecasts.2,3,4 Together, these targets aim for a 2030 emissions range of 787-838 MtCO2e (or 86-98% above 2015 levels), excluding LULUCF.5
Pakistan's NDC is not aligned with the global objective of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C. Meeting this would require the country's emissions to fall by at least 7% below 2015 levels by the end of this decade, excluding LULUCF. Closing this gap between current targets and those aligned with the Paris Agreement’s temperature limit would require ambitious targets going forward, as well as strengthened climate policies (and a reversal of climate-unfriendly policies) going forward.
With increased levels of international support, Pakistan would be able to implement its domestic emissions pathway and close some of the gap between its fair share level and domestic emissions level.
Pakistan's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Long term pathway
The government has not yet published a Long-Term Strategy. Pakistan’s 2021 NDC mentions that by 2050 the country’s business-as-usual GHG emissions per capita will reach 5.4 tonnes for a population rising to 338 million. This would represent an increase from 2.4 tonnes per capita in 2023, though it remains below the global average of 6.6 tCO2e per capita for that year.6,7
To align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Pakistan would need to reduce its GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF, by 39% or more below 2015 levels by 2050.
Pakistan's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Pakistan. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2015
Reference year
|
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
422
|
547
|
299 to
393
|
255 to
349
|
226 to
310
|
156 to
258
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-29 to
-7%
|
-40 to
-17%
|
-46 to
-27%
|
-63 to
-39%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
163
|
252
|
90 to
140
|
50 to
116
|
9 to
83
|
-24 to
24
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-45 to
-14%
|
-69 to
-29%
|
-94 to
-49%
|
-115 to
-85%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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