What is Pakistan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Ambition Gap

Raising ambition

In 2025, Pakistan submitted a new NDC reiterating its 2030 emissions target of 50% below a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario (composed of 15% unconditional and 35% conditional reduction targets), and committing to a 2035 target of 50% below a BAU scenario (composed of 17% unconditional and 33% conditional reduction targets), both subject to international support and including LULUCF.1 Full analysis of the 2035 targets, including values directly comparable to our pathways, will be made available when complete.

For comparison, in our 1.5°C pathways we assess the 2030 targets as 153-252% above 2015 levels by 2030 (or an emissions range of 1097-1529 MtCO2e). These targets are not aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways which show emissions excluding LULUCF would need to fall by 9-30% below 2015 levels by 2030.

These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align Pakistan with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5°C compatible pathways. Achieving these reductions would require significant levels of international support.

Pakistan estimates that achieving its 2030 conditional reduction target would require USD 101 bn in international grants just for the energy transition alone, with a further USD 565.7 bn (largely sourced from international support) needed to meet its 2035 target.2

Pakistan's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

Target Year

*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.

  • Graph description

    The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

    Methodology

    Data References

Long term pathway

The government has not yet published a long-term strategy. The adviser to the Prime Minister on climate change expressed at COP26 that they “don’t believe in the net-zero concept at present. […] If the world does not change in the next 10 years, then we’ll be too late for any net zeros in 2050, 2060 or 2070”.3

Pakistan’s 2021 NDC mentions that by 2050 the country’s business-as-usual GHG emissions per capita will reach 5.4 tonnes for a population expected to rise to 338 million. This would represent an increase from 2.4 tonnes per capita in 2023, though it remains below the 2023 global average of 6.6 tCO2e per capita.4,5

To align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Pakistan would need to reduce its GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF, by at least 45% below 2015 levels by 2050.

Pakistan's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Pakistan. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

LULUCF

Indicator
2015
Reference year
2023
2030
2035
2040
2050
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
434
533
304 to 396
266 to 356
238 to 316
122 to 238
Relative to reference year in %
-30 to -9%
-39 to -18%
-45 to -27%
-72 to -45%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
158
184
78 to 121
43 to 102
6 to 72
-21 to 19
Relative to reference year in %
-51 to -23%
-73 to -35%
-96 to -54%
-113 to -88%
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
445
Relative to reference year in %
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
168
Relative to reference year in %

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

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