What is Pakistan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Pakistan's 2019 emissions were 539 MtCO2e, excluding LULUCF, with the energy sector accounting for half of these emissions.1,2 Agriculture, integral to the country's economy, was responsible for 37% of the emissions.
Pakistan’s emissions have continued to rise, largely driven by the energy and agriculture sectors. But GHG emissions remain relatively low at 2.4 tCO2e per capita – almost a third of the global average (6.6 tCO2e per capita).3 Nevertheless, emissions growth has been slower than expected, partly due to the multiple crises facing Pakistan.4 The impact of the pandemic, macroeconomic instability, energy insecurity and natural disasters like the dramatic 2022 floods have hindered economic growth and sustainable development.5
The power sector represented 14% of total GHG emissions in 2019 but this may increase rapidly if the planned coal-fired power expansion proceeds, thereby delaying the transition to cheaper renewables power sources.6,7,8 Increasing use of fossil fuels in the transportation and industrial sectors until 2019 has driven up emissions, with transport and industrial energy demand accounting for 13% and 12% of national emissions, respectively.9,10
Pakistan's 2019 GHG emissions
excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions
-
Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector.
Data References
-
Energy overview and main policy gaps
Pakistan's energy supply is heavily reliant on fossil fuels and biomass. In 2021, these constituted 66% and 27% of the energy mix respectively.11 Between 2015-2021, primary energy supply increased by 17%.12
Hydropower has been a significant part of the power portfolio because of the abundant water resource in the Indus Basin.13 The adoption of solar and wind energy remains minimal, with the share of non-biomass renewables in the energy mix holding steady at 3% since the start the 21st century.
Gas, oil, and coal accounted for 26%, 26%, and 14% of Pakistan’s primary energy mix in 2021, respectively.14 Pakistan relies heavily on imports of all three, importing 45% of its energy mix in 2021.15 This dependency on imported fossil fuels is an economic risk for the country given the volatility of pricing.16 The struggle to procure LNG imports during the 2022 energy crisis has led energy planners to prepare a move from gas to coal by increasing domestic coal production – a backwards step in the global effort to mitigate climate change.17 As of 2022, Pakistan produces three quarters of its gas supply, but its resources are rapidly depleting.18 While it imports close to 80% of its coal, the country has major domestic deposits.19
Targets and commitments
Unconditional target in 2021 NDC:
As expressed by the country:
- “Pakistan intends to set a cumulative ambitious conditional target of overall 50% reduction of its projected emissions by 2030, with 15% from the country’s own resources […]”20
Conditional target in 2021 NDC:
As expressed by the country:
-
“Pakistan intends to set a cumulative ambitious conditional target of overall 50% reduction of its projected emissions by 2030, with […] 35% subject to provision of international grant finance that would require USD 101 billion just for energy transition.”21
-
When excluding LULUCF, Pakistan’s conditional target translates to: 86-98% above 2015 levels by 2030 or 787-838 MtCO2e22
Long-term target
Pakistan has not yet submitted a Long-Term Strategy to the UNFCCC