What is Pakistan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Current Situation

Emissions profile

Pakistan's 2022 total GHG emissions were 541 MtCO2e, excluding LULUCF, with the energy and agriculture sectors each contributing 43%.1 Pakistan’s emissions have risen steadily since the 1990s, driven by economic expansion, urbanisation and infrastructure development.2

The power sector contributed 12% of total emissions (excluding LULUCF) in 2022, reflecting its reliance on fossil fuels, which supplied 60% of the power mix. Following the 2022 energy crisis, the government plans to quadruple domestic coal capacity to reduce reliance on gas, which could result in costly stranded assets in the future.3 Nearly three quarters of coal production in Pakistan are lignite, which is an inefficient and carbon-intensive fuel source.4 The planned increase in coal capacity will push power sector emissions higher. This trajectory aligns with research projecting coal consumption in power and industry to nearly double by 2030.5

The transport sector, Pakistan’s largest oil consumer, contributed 11% of domestic emissions in 2022, while industry accounted for 16% (from both energy use and process emissions, excluding emissions from the domestic fossil fuel industry). Both sectors have also driven emissions growth.6

Pakistan's 2022 GHG emissions

excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions. Individual sector rounding may lead to small inconsistencies in total sum.

Energy overview and main policy gaps

Pakistan's energy supply is heavily reliant on fossil fuels and biomass, accounting for 59% and 31% of the energy mix respectively in 2023.7 Between 2015-2023, primary energy supply increased by 8%.8

The share of non-biomass renewables in the energy mix has remained around 3% since the start of the 21st century, mainly coming from hydropower from the Indus Basin’s abundant water resources. Despite the great wind and solar potential, the share of solar and wind remains minimal.9,10

Gas, oil, and coal accounted for 28%, 20%, and 10% of Pakistan’s energy supply in 2023, respectively.11 Pakistan relies heavily on imports of all three, importing 32% of its energy mix in 2023. Gas imports have more than tripled between 2015-2023.12 This dependency on imported fossil fuels is a major economic risk given the volatility of fossil fuel markets, as evidenced by the 2022 energy crisis when Pakistan struggled to import LNG.13 The reliance on fossil fuels to meet the increased energy demand also contributes to the serious air pollution problem.14

As of 2023, Pakistan produces over two thirds of its gas supply, but its resources are rapidly depleting.15,16 While it imports nearly half of its coal, it has more than doubled domestic production between 2015-2023.17

Despite research showing the benefits of renewables for energy security, energy planners instead intend to address energy security concerns by increasing domestic coal production – a step back in the global effort to mitigate climate change.18,19

Targets and commitments

Pakistan submitted its NDC 3.0 including a 2035 target in 2025. Full analysis, including values directly comparable to our pathways, will be made available when complete.

Unconditional 2030 target in 2021 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

  • “Pakistan intends to set a cumulative ambitious conditional target of overall 50% reduction of its projected emissions by 2030, with 15% from the country’s own resources […]”20

Conditional 2030 target in 2021 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

  • “Pakistan intends to set a cumulative ambitious conditional target of overall 50% reduction of its projected emissions by 2030, with […] 35% subject to provision of international grant finance that would require USD 101 billion just for energy transition.”21

• When excluding LULUCF, Pakistan’s conditional target translates to: 153-252% above 2015 levels by 2030 or 1097-1529 MtCO2e22

Unconditional 2035 target in 2025 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

  • “Pakistan has set an indicative 2035 voluntary emission reduction target against a projected emission of 2,559 MtCO2e, aiming to lower emissions to 1,280 MtCO2e. Of this, Pakistan aims to an unconditional 17% reduction […]”23

Conditional 2035 target in 2025 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

  • “Pakistan has set an indicative 2035 voluntary emission reduction target against a projected emission of 2,559 MtCO2e, aiming to lower emissions to 1,280 MtCO2e. Of this, […] the remaining 33% reduction is explicitly contingent upon: a) provision of adequate, grants based, additional and new international climate financing amounting to USD 565.7 billion; b) timely and equitable access to affordable, appropriate, and climate-friendly technologies; and capacity building; and c) commensurate ambition and action at the global level, in line with the principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC).”24

Long-term target

Pakistan has not yet submitted a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC.

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