Pakistan

Last update: 15 March 2022

Economy wide

International support will be needed to help the country implement a 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway, which requires a reduction of 37-46% below 2015 levels by 2030 (or 225-263 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030) while still meeting the country’s growing energy demand.

Pakistan's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

2030 NDC

Pakistan’s updated NDC targets an overall emissions reduction of 50% below business as usual level including land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF): 15% unconditional and 35% subject to international financial support.¹ In absolute terms, the overall target, when excluding LULUCF, translates to an increase from 416 MtCO₂e/yr in 2015 to between 787 and 838 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030.² This would constitute an increase of between 89-102% above 2015 levels.³

Long term pathway

1.5°C compatible pathways show that Pakistan could reduce CO₂ emissions by around 90-95% below 2015 levels in 2050, while GHG emissions could decrease by 66-67% in 2050 below 2015 levels, to 137-142 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF by 2050.⁴

Remaining emissions

Remaining emissions, mostly coming from agriculture and waste would then be balanced through the deployment of carbon dioxide removal approaches such as from the land sector.⁵

Decarbonisation

Decarbonising its economy through the uptake of renewables is the best option for the country to reduce its reliance on fossil imports and associated costs.

Sectors

Power

In December 2020, the Pakistan government announced a moratorium on new coal and pledged to increase the share of renewable energy in its power mix to 60% in 2030. However, the country’s power generation capacity plans include a significant expansion of local coal mining while paying insufficient attention to the vast potential for solar and wind generation.⁶^–⁷
In contrast, 1.5°C compatible pathways would require renewable energy’s share in power generation to increase from 2020-21 levels of 30% to at least 76% in 2030 and at least 95% in 2050.⁸ This could mainly come from wind, solar, bagasse, and hydroelectricity.
Along with the increase in renewables, coal, which has historically played a minor role in Pakistan’s power mix, will need to be phased out by 2029. Likewise, gas would need to exit the power mix between 2038 and 2045. A fully decarbonised power sector could be realised by 2038.⁹

Buildings

The energy structure of Pakistan’s building sector has seen a slow shift away from biomass which has been replaced by natural gas and electricity. Still, biomass currently accounts for 68% of the total energy supply for this sector.
The 1.5°C compatible pathways for the building sector are characterised by a rapid decrease in the consumption of biomass and a corresponding increase in electricity use. Given the power sector transformation under these pathways, the change in building energy structure leads to direct emissions from this sector falling from 2019 levels of 22 MtCO₂/yr in 2019 to reach net zero between 2032 and 2042.
In its updated NDC, the Government of Pakistan has included measures for green buildings supported by the goal of “at least 20% RE generation by 2025 and at least 60% by 2030.” The 2030 target falls short of the 1.5°C compatible pathway range for the power sector, 76-81%.

Transport

Energy use in Pakistan’s transport sector has risen slowly and mostly steadily over the last decades but began to significantly increase in 2013.
1.5°C compatible pathways for the transport sector are characterised by a near-term reduction in energy consumption followed by a steady increase in energy use which sees substantial amounts of hydrogen and electricity replacing oil.
Under the 1.5°C compatible pathways, the share of electricity in the sector energy consumption would increase from 0% (2019 level) to 22-29% by 2050. Similarly, hydrogen’s share would increase from 0% (2019 levels) to 49-68% by 2050.

Industry

Fossil fuel use in Pakistan’s industrial sector has increased in line with industrial output, with natural gas use growing by 72% during 2002-07 and coal use growing by 162% between 2013-2018.
Under 1.5°C compatible pathways, industrial emissions begin to decrease immediately but in earnest after 2030. Coal is phased out for industrial energy use by 2040 as the use of solid biomass and electricity increases. As such, industrial direct CO₂ emissions (54 MtCO₂ in 2019) drop to between 14-15 MtCO₂ by 2040.

The Government of Pakistan. Pakistan: Updated Nationally Determined Contributions 2021. (2021). ↩
Note that the absolute values have been converted from SAR, as they appear in the NDC, to AR4. ↩
Pakistan’s baseline projections for 2030 emissions, as stated in their NDC, assumes an emissions growth rate of about 9.6% p.a. This would be a significant increase from the average annual rate of around 3% during years 2000 to 2015. Furthermore, as the projected emissions growth is larger than the government’s forecast GDP growth rate of 7-9% p.a., emissions intensity (excl. LULUCF) would grow at a compound annual rate between 2.6% (for higher GDP growth) to 2.7% (for lower GDP growth) in the period 2015 and 2030, in contrast to the 1% average annual decrease seen between 2000 and 2015. ↩
Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account. ↩
Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account. ↩
Isaad, H. Opinion: Is Pakistan really phasing out coal? The Third Pole (2021). ↩
NTDC. Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30. (2021). ↩
Current values for renewable energy’s share in the power mix refer to 2020-21 and are taken from Table 7 of NERPA’s 2021 State of Industry report. Note that hydroelectricity alone makes up a 27% share of generation. ↩
Previous studies have shown that with planned and announced coal capacity, Pakistan’s emissions due to coal fired power plants would likely peak in 2055 and phase out in 2061. This being far above what was shown to be needed at a regional level: coal phase out from power by 2040 in South and South East Asia to be compatible with the Paris Agreement. ↩

What is Pakistan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?