Transport

Energy use in Pakistan’s transport sector has risen slowly and mostly steadily over the past decades but began to significantly increase in 2013. Oil has been the primary energy carrier in transport accounting for 91% of the total consumed in 2019. Oil’s share in transport energy had dropped to a low of 78% in 2011, as natural gas use increased. However, due to lower oil prices and natural gas shortages in the country, the use of natural gas has decreased since then.¹^,²

Graph description

Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling the energy mix in the final energy demand sectors
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

1.5°C compatible pathways for the transport sector show an increase in energy use, so that 2019 levels are reached or surpassed by 2040, and consumption continues to increase out to 2070. The increase after 2030 sees substantial amounts of hydrogen and electricity replacing oil.³ As direct CO₂ emissions begin to drop immediately under 1.5°C pathways, the implication is that fuel switching will follow efficiency improvements for the overall long-term trajectory. The result is that this sector reaches zero emissions between 2048 and 2066.

The government, through their National Electric Vehicle Policy (NEVP), has set targets for electric vehicles to comprise 30% of all new vehicles sold (various categories) by 2030 and 90% by 2040. In addition, Euro 5 emissions standards have been introduced for petrol and diesel vehicles. Recent analysis has found that under the NVEP, total transport-related CO₂ emissions to 2030 (direct and indirect) would be lower than a no EV adoption scenario, although emissions would still increase.⁴^,⁵ On the other hand, the 1.5°C pathways analysed here show a decrease between 30-58% (2019-30) for transport related CO₂ emissions. This is in large part due to the increased renewable share in power generation outlined above.

Projects under implementation and development in mass transit seek to lower emissions both by providing an alternative to individual passenger vehicles and utilisation of low emission fuels such as bio-methane from cow dung.⁶ Thus, the government is taking advantage of sector coupling opportunities between transport and waste.

Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).

Graph description

Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling power carbon intensity
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021
- Historical energy emissions : IEA GHG emissions from Energy database 2021

Indicator	2019	2030	2040	2050	Decarbonised transport sector by
Direct CO₂ emissions MtCO₂/yr	50	21 to 35	19 to 21	0 to 19	2048 to 2066
Relative to reference year in %		-58 to -30%	-62 to -58%	-100 to -63%

Indicator	2030	2040	2050
Share of electricity per cent	3 to 8	10 to 17	22 to 29
Share of biofuels per cent	1 to 2	1 to 5	3 to 11
Share of hydrogen per cent	1 to 18	40 to 44	49 to 68

All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.

EIA. Pakistan - Analysis. (2016). ↩
Interestingly, a recent study has shown that indigenous natural gas based fuels have larger wheel to tank emissions than fuels produced from indigenous crude oil.[^7] ↩
The 1.5°C scenarios where hydrogen features most heavily are also those where energy consumption increases the most. This may be due to hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles being deployed in heavy transport. A recent report has found that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles use substantially more kWh/km compared to electric vehicles.[^8] ↩
Charles, M. et al. Electrification of Pakistan’s Transport System - Modeling EV Penetration and Energy Supply Chain Impacts. (2021). ↩
This assumes a generation mix in line with that projected under the recently released Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan. The plan foresees coal accounting for 21% of 2030 generation mix.[^9] In contrast, the 1.5°C compatible pathways have coal being phased out of power by 2029. Note also that the median of the pathways has the transportation sector consuming around 4,700 GWh of electricity in 2030. ↩
The Government of Pakistan. Pakistan: Updated Nationally Determined Contributions 2021. (2021). ↩

What is Pakistan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Pakistan's energy mix in the transport sector

petajoule per year

Pakistan's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)

MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks

Cookie settings

Statistics

Google