What is Pakistan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Energy and agriculture are Pakistan’s key emitting sectors, with the former emitting mostly carbon dioxide and the latter emitting mostly methane and nitrous oxide. In 2017, fuel combusting activities in the energy sector (from power, industrial energy use, transport, and to a lesser degree, energy use in buildings) accounted for 87% of CO₂ emissions, with industrial processes accounting for another 9%. In industrial energy use, the cement (90% fuelled by coal) and textiles (70% fuelled by natural gas) industries are the largest consumers.1 Cement production relies heavily on coal while the textile industry has been found to be the country’s largest importer of CO₂ emissions.
Emissions from the agricultural sector comprise mostly of methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O). The main drivers for these are, respectively, enteric fermentation and heavy use of nitrogenous fertilisers in agricultural soils.2,3 Livestock contributed to 65% of CH₄ emissions, while waste and energy (fugitive emissions) accounted for 15% and 14% respectively. N₂O emissions were mostly due to agricultural activities other than livestock (86%).
A 2017 study found that given the government’s policies regarding economic growth, under a business-as-usual scenario the country’s GHG emissions would double by 2020 and increase by around 14 times by 2050 relative to 2008 levels.4,5 In reality, emissions have increased by around 40% between 2008 and 2019.6 Nonetheless, the government’s own projections, which inform its NDC, also see total emissions growing exponentially in line with GDP growth targets, with the bulk of the change occurring in the energy and agricultural sectors.7
With regards to agriculture, both the sector’s emissions intensity, and share of GDP, have seen a steady decline since 2000.8 The main drivers for this decline have been reduced cultivation area, reduction in fertiliser use due to high costs, and lower water availability.9 It is expected that climate change will contribute to reduced agricultural crop productivity, particularly wheat and rice, in the country, and that this will in turn lead to higher commodity prices and reduced domestic consumption.10
As for the energy sector, emissions are expected to rise with increased energy demand due to industrial development and urbanisation. Energy consumption did grow at a high rate between 2016 and 2018 (around 9.4% annually), but this dropped to 0.01% in 2019 and was –5.14% in 2020.11 GDP has also grown at a lower average annual rate, around 4.5% between 2015-2019, compared with the 7-9% the government has assumed in its baseline 2030 projections,12 which take into account Pakistan’s economic and developmental objectives. More importantly, the government’s baseline emissions growth given in the country’s NDC, are around 9.6% p.a. between 2015 and 2030. This being greater than projected GDP growth implies an increasing emissions intensity, in contrast to the decreasing trend seen since 2000. This increased emissions intensity may be based on an outdated assumption regarding the increase in coal power generation. While coal power has seen a substantial increase in recent years, this was mainly funded through the China Pakistan Economic Corridor.13,14 With China announcing that it will end overseas investment in coal projects, some of the remaining projects in development could be shelved. However, much of the coal capacity under development will likely come on-line in the next few years and the government plans to significantly increase reliance on locally mined coal.15,16
Pakistan's current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. LULUCF emissions are not available
Data References
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Energy system
Pakistan currently relies heavily on imported fossil fuels in both Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) and its power sector. In 2019, the country’s primary energy mix was mostly dominated by fossil fuels including 20% oil, 31% gas and 12% coal.17 Coal has historically had a small role in the country’s TPES, but this has been growing in recent years. The country has relatively low levels of access to clean cooking (48% in 2018), mostly in rural areas.18,19 Urban households have seen a move towards natural gas, which has increased the country’s reliance on energy imports.20
In 2020-21, electric power generation was composed of 34.6% gas, 27% hydroelectric, 7.7% oil, 19.5% coal, 7.7% nuclear, and 3% other renewables (wind, solar, and bagasse).21
Recent years have seen a move from oil to coal in Pakistan’s primary energy supply as well as a greater reliance on imported LNG to meet gas demand. It is still unclear how the government sees the role of coal in the country’s future energy system. Prime Minister Khan’s announced moratorium on new coal and pledge for a 60% renewable share in the 2030 energy mix, are welcome signs.22,23 However, it is yet to be determined how this will affect the 4590 MW of coal capacity currently in development particularly as the country’s power generation capacity plans include a significant expansion of local coal mining. At the same time, these plans pay insufficient attention to the vast potential for solar and wind generation. The capacity from proposed coal expansion is four times greater than that of wind and solar projects currently under development (1183 MW).24–25,26 Moreover, the coal expansion is at odds with the country’s historically low level of reliance on coal for power generation.
In 2019, the country announced a plan to boost the share of renewables (wind, solar, biomass, and small hydro) in its power sector to 30% by 2030, while at the same time increasing large-scale hydropower’s share to 30%.27
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Baseline scenario target
NDC target
Unconditional target:
- 15% below BAU by 2030 (incl. LULUCF) or 178% above 2018 levels.
Conditional target:
- 35% below BAU by 2030 (incl. LULUCF). Conditional on at least 101 billion USD (2021 prices) in international funding.
- 64% above 2018 levels (sum of conditional and unconditional targets, incl. LULUCF)
Estimated 2030 total NDC target (sum of conditional and unconditional):
- 87-99% above 2015 levels or 787-838 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).28
Market mechanisms
- REDD+ readiness and piloting phases have already been initiated during 2018-19. Phase 3 is planned to start during 2020-21 for results-based payments under REDD+ against quantified and verified emissions.29
Long-term target
- None
Sectoral targets
Energy
- Renewable energy 60% by 2030.
- Around one million new customers will be connected to net metering through generation of additional 3000 MW solar energy by 2025.30,31
- Under green energy projects, the provincial governments developing PV power projects to provide solar energy to irrigation public-sector buildings that include schools, hospitals, etc., as well as solar irrigation water pumps, solar geysers and rural households.32
- Under the National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act, a target has been put in place to reduce primary energy consumption by up to 3 Mtoe by 2023. This includes sectoral targets for industry, buildings, transport, power, and agriculture.33
Power
- The Alternative and Renewable Energy Policy 2019 envisions 20% renewable energy power production by 2025, and 30% by 2030.34
Transport
- Electric cars (including vans, jeeps, and small trucks) to account for 30% of new vehicle sales by 2030. Additional targets for motorbikes/rickshaws, busses, and trucks (50%, 50%, and 30%, respectively of new sales in 2030). Target of 90% share in new sales for all electric vehicle categories in 2040.35
- Move from Euro-II to Euro-V emissions standards for petrol and diesel vehicles taking affect in August 2020 and January 2021 respectively.36
LULUCF
- Plant4Pakistan, a five-year project to plant 10 billion trees across the country from 2018 to 2023. This is a follow up to earlier Billion Tree Tsunami.37