Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

The Government of Pakistan indicated in its initial NDC to expect an “exponential increase of GHG emissions” likely to occur for several decades after 2016 “before any decrease in emissions” would be realised.¹ The government’s thinking seems not to have changed as the same baseline trajectory, which leads to a 2030 emissions level of 1603 MtCO₂e, is again used in the country’s updated NDC. This 300% increase in emissions from 2015 to 2030 predicted by the baseline scenario is intrinsically tied to the government’s economic target of 7-9% GDP growth per year.²^,³^,⁴

Pakistan’s updated NDC targets unconditional emissions reductions of 15% below BAU, and a further conditional reduction of 35%, both including LULUCF.⁵ When excluding LULUCF, the overall 2030 target (50% reduction) comes to a range between 787-838 MtCO₂e/yr, or an increase of 87-99% above 2015 levels.

International support will be needed to help the country implement a 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway which requires a reduction of 37-46% below 2015 levels by 2030 (or 263-225 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030), while meeting the growing energy demand.

The flow of climate finance to the country since the announcement of its initial NDC in 2016 has been much lower than expected.⁶^,⁷ That document set a conditional target of 20% dependent on international climate funding of 40 billion USD. While the updated NDC does not specify an exact value for the international financial support required to meet the new conditional target, the document sates that the cost of the country’s energy transition will require 101 billion USD by 2030 and an additional 65 billion USD by 2040.⁸

Pakistan's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

Long-term 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that Pakistan could reach CO₂ emissions reductions of 90-95% in 2050 compared to 2015 levels. GHG emissions see a decrease relative to 2015 levels by 66-67% in 2050 or reaching a level of 137-142 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF by 2050.⁹

Recent analysis of Pakistan’s land use and forestry sectors indicates that these have been a historic source of GHG emissions, and furthermore, this has increased at a compound annual rate of around 3.3% between 1994 and 2017.¹⁰^,¹¹ Pakistan will need to implement stringent policies to reduce its forestry emissions and further contribute to negative emissions. In addition, international support will need to be provided for technological carbon dioxide removal approaches such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or direct air capture and storage (DAC).

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

Pakistan’s per capita CO₂ emissions (excluding LULUCF) have risen from 0.78 to 0.92 tCO₂ per capita between 2000 and 2016.¹² While this is low compared to the world average of 4.8 tCO₂ per capita (in 2016), the government’s current baseline projections have emissions growing at 9.6% p.a. out to 2030. With an expected population growth rate of 2% p.a. over this period, the country’s per capita emissions would more than double by 2030.¹³

Studies suggest that economic growth has been a major driver of Pakistan’s energy-related carbon emissions.¹⁴^,¹⁵ A switch from fossil fuel to renewable based energy and the development of indigenous clean technology industries, such as the burgeoning electric vehicle industry, could help to both reduce energy-related emissions and drive economic development.¹⁶

The China Pakistan Economic Corridor, which the government cites as a major driver of GDP growth, currently has coal-fired power plants making up 65% of the 12.6 GW of the capacity from energy projects, while hydro makes up 27% and wind and solar make up 8% combined.¹⁷^,¹⁸ This comes despite Prime Minister Khan’s announced moratorium on new coal and pledge for a 60% renewable share in the 2030 energy mix.¹⁹^,²⁰ Efforts should be made to re-focus investment on renewable technologies, and away from coal, in both energy and related sectors.²¹

1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that the share of unabated fossil fuels in primary energy, which currently stand at around 62%, should be cut to around 46% by 2040 and reach less than 17% by 2050.²² As is stated in the country’s updated NDC, the government recognizes that off-grid and renewable resources are the least cost preferred option to address ongoing issues of access to energy. Beyond cost, decarbonising the power sector, and meeting increased demand, through the use of renewable energy has significant co-benefits for health and employment.²³^,²⁴^,²⁵

Despite Prime Minister Khan’s recently announced moratorium on new coal, the government’s current plans to expand electricity generation capacity rely heavily on coal-fired power plants, placing the country on a path that risks stranded assets, increases energy dependency and would likely lock in a carbon intensive pathway.²⁶^,²⁷^,²⁸^,²⁹

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Pakistan. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	2015 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	416	517	263 225 to 307	179 163 to 208	142 137 to 165
Relative to reference year in %			-37% -46 to -26%	-57% -61 to -50%	-66% -67 to -60%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	178	251	110 98 to 135	64 22 to 73	17 9 to 45	2063
Relative to reference year in %			-38% -45 to -24%	-64% -88 to -59%	-90% -95 to -75%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.
- Download data as CSV

The Government of Pakistan. Pakistan’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (PAK-INDC). (2015). ↩
The Government of Pakistan. Pakistan: Updated Nationally Determined Contributions 2021. (2021). ↩
The Government of Pakistan. Pakistan’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (PAK-INDC). (2015). ↩
The Government’s updated NDC shows that 2018 emissions total emissions levels were 8.7% less than that predicted in the initial NDC. Interestingly, while this does appear to be the case for the energy, agricultural, and industrial process sectors, emissions from waste and land use change have exceeded predicted levels. ↩
The Government of Pakistan. Pakistan: Updated Nationally Determined Contributions 2021. (2021). ↩
Zahid, M. & Abedullah Anjum. Pakistan’s options for climate finance. The News International (2020). ↩
Abbasi, K. Pakistan left out of $100 bn finance despite efforts to protect climate. The News International (2021). ↩
The Government of Pakistan. Pakistan: Updated Nationally Determined Contributions 2021. (2021). ↩
Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account. ↩
Mir, K. A., Park, C., Purohit, P. & Kim, S. Comparative analysis of greenhouse gas emission inventory for Pakistan: Part II agriculture, forestry and other land use and waste. Adv. Clim. Chang. Res. 12, 132–144 (2021). ↩
The referenced study shows that emissions from “forestry and other land use” amounted to 10.08 MtCO₂e in 2015, which is consistent with Pakistan’s NDC (as are the emissions values for other years given in the study). Applying the compound annual growth rate of 3.3% to 2015 values leads to an estimated 16.96 MtCO₂e of LULUCF emissions in 2030, less than the 29 MtCO₂e given in the NDC baseline. ↩
Hutfilter, U. F. et al. Decarbonising South and South East Asia - Country Profile - Pakistan. (2019). ↩
According to data from the World Bank, Pakistan’s population grew by 2.05% between 2018-2019 and this rate has been slowly decreasing in the decade prior. ↩
Khan, M. K., Khan, M. I. & Rehan, M. The relationship between energy consumption, economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in Pakistan. Financ. Innov. 6, 1–13 (2020). ↩
Lin, B. & Raza, M. Y. Analysis of energy related CO2 emissions in Pakistan. J. Clean. Prod. 219, 981–993 (2019). ↩
Uddin, M. Pakistan’s National Electric Vehicle Policy: Charging towards the future. ICCT (2020). ↩
CPEC Authority. Energy Projects under CPEC. (2021). ↩
This 12.6 GW of capacity includes the 5.5 GW already completed (of which coal makes up 84%) and the 7.1 GW under construction and consideration (of which coal makes up 51%). ↩
Isaad, H. Opinion: Is Pakistan really phasing out coal? The Third Pole (2021). ↩
Iqbal, A. Pakistan will shift to 60pc clean energy by 2030, world assured. Dawn (2021). ↩
Majid, A. How cleantech can help power Pakistan’s green revolution. World Economic Fourm (2019). ↩
The 1.5°C national pathway explorer takes primary energy values and shares from the IEA’s World Energy Balances. NERPA publishes statistics on Total Primary Energy supply and consumption in its 2021 State of the Industry. That source has fossil fuel’s share in 2019-20 as 75%. Variations in the values from the two sources are due to methodological differences such as IEA excluding trade in heat and electricity. ↩
Hutfilter, U. F. et al. Decarbonising South and South East Asia - Country Profile - Pakistan. (2019). ↩
Rahut, D. B., Ali, A., Mottaleb, K. A. & Aryal, J. P. Wealth, education and cooking-fuel choices among rural households in Pakistan. Energy Strateg. Rev. 24, 236–243 (2019). ↩
WHO. Health benefits of raising ambition in Pakistan’s nationally determined contribution: WHO technical report. (2021). ↩
Isaad, H. Opinion: Is Pakistan really phasing out coal? The Third Pole (2021). ↩
Hutfilter, U. F. et al. Decarbonising South and South East Asia - Country Profile - Pakistan. (2019). ↩
Nicholas, S. Pakistan Risks Locking in Long-Term Overcapacity and Expensive Power. (2020). ↩
The latest Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan has coal (imported and local) contributing 19% of power generation in 2030, more than wind and solar combined (14%).[^30] ↩

What is Pakistan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Pakistan's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Pakistan's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Pakistan's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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