What is Pakistan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Buildings
Decarbonising the building sector
In 2022, the buildings sector emitted 36 MtCO2e, accounting for 7% of national emissions.1 Biomass was the primary energy source for the sector, meeting 63% of demand, though CO2 emissions from biomass combustion are not accounted for here to avoid double counting with the land use sector.2 Gas and electricity accounted for 18% and 16% of the buildings sector’s supply, respectively.3
Pakistan's energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the buildings sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The types of fuel used vary significantly along socio-economic lines in Pakistan. Biomass, used by more than 100 million citizens for cooking, is consumed more prominently in less wealthy rural areas and is a major public health issue as its use contributes to indoor air pollution. Indoor cooking, for instance, is estimated to have caused 3.1 million premature deaths worldwide in 2021.4 Harvesting wood for heating has also contributed to Pakistan’s high deforestation rate, exacerbating the decline of its already low forest cover.5,6
Energy use and associated emissions in the buildings sector are projected to grow, driven by rapid urbanisation, population growth and increasing construction demand.7 To decarbonise this sector, Pakistan would need to boost sector’s electrification while rolling out renewables and promoting energy efficiency through strengthening the implementation of its buildings’ energy efficiency standards, adopting passive building design elements such as building orientation optimisation, building envelop improvement and external shading systems.8
The Deep Electrification pathway best captures the falling costs of renewables, increasing the electricity use for the sector coupled with renewables. By 2040, electricity is projected to constitute two-thirds of the buildings’ energy mix, surging to 94% by 2050.
Current electrification level of the buildings sector is just above 15% (2022), suggesting the population’s limited access to electricity. Under all 1.5°C compatible pathways, electricity use in buildings ramps up until 2030 (20-23%) and 2040 (64-66%), and ultimately reaching levels around 90% by 2050, displacing biomass. To promote a universal power access, the government’ Integrated Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) targets 60% of on-grid capacity from renewable technologies by 2030 based on the least-cost principles, providing a clean and affordable energy solution.9
Under the pathway, gas consumption drops between 2040 and 2050.10 By this time, the country’s reserves are expected to be depleted, and the country would be entirely reliant on imports, increasing the economic rationale for a renewables rollout.11
Pakistan's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and biomass in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Pakistan
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Buildings sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
21
|
26 to
33
|
31 to
39
|
16 to
31
|
1 to
8
|
2042 to
2048
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
24 to
57%
|
48 to
86%
|
-24 to
48%
|
-95 to
-62%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
15
|
19 to
23
|
32 to
40
|
63 to
66
|
88 to
94
|
|
Share of heat
%
|
0
|
1 to
2
|
1 to
2
|
1 to
3
|
2 to
4
|
|
Share of hydrogen
%
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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