What is Pakistan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Buildings
Decarbonising the buildings sector
In 2019, the buildings sector emitted 45 MtCO2e, accounting for 8% of national emissions.1 Biomass was the primary energy source for this sector, representing 68% of Pakistan’s total energy supply, though CO2 emissions from biomass combustion are not accounted for here to avoid double counting with the land use sector.2 Gas and electricity accounted for 17% and 13% of the buildings sector’s supply respectively.3 The types of fuel used vary significantly along socio-economic lines in Pakistan. Biomass, used by more than 100 million citizens for cooking, is consumed more prominently in less-wealthy rural areas and is a is a major health issues as its use contributes to indoor air pollution. Indoor cooking, for instance, is estimated to have caused 3.1 million premature deaths in 2021 worldwide.4,5 Harvesting wood for heating has also contributed to Pakistan’s high deforestation rate, exacerbating the decline of its already low forest cover.6,7
Pakistan's energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
-
Graph description
Energy mix composition in the buildings sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
-
The Deep Electrification pathway best captures the falling costs of renewables. This pathway would see the transition from biomass to renewables in the buildings sector accelerate around 2025. By 2040, electricity is projected to constitute two-thirds of the buildings’ energy mix, surging to 94% by 2050.
Under all 1.5°C compatible pathways, electricity use in buildings ramps up rapidly between 2030 and 2040, massively displacing biomass. Gas consumption drops between 2040 and 2050.8 By this time, the country’s reserves are expected to be depleted, and the country would be entirely reliant on imports.9
Pakistan's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
-
Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
-
1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and biomass in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Pakistan
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised buildings sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
22
|
26 to
33
|
31 to
39
|
16 to
31
|
1 to
8
|
2042 to
2048
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
18 to
50%
|
41 to
77%
|
-27 to
41%
|
-95 to
-64%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
13
|
19 to
23
|
32 to
40
|
63 to
66
|
88 to
94
|
|
Share of heat
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
2
|
1 to
2
|
1 to
3
|
2 to
4
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
-
Methodology
Data References
-