Power

Decarbonising the power sector

The power sector accounted for 14% of Pakistan’s total emissions, excluding LULUCF, in 2019.¹ Fossil gas generated 34% of the country’s electricity in that year.² Despite exploiting domestic fields, the country relies on imported liquefied natural gas for 30% of its gas supply.³ International price volatility led to significant power outages in 2023, restricting economic activities and the electricity supply to public facilities and hospitals.⁴ In response, the government plans to quadruple its coal capacity from the 2.3 GW operating as of 2023, reversing the previous moratorium on new coal plants.⁵ This approach is contrary to what is needed to align with 1.5°C.

Graph description

Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.

Methodology
- Downscaling power energy mix
Data References
- IEA, World Energy Balances 2023

The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway limits warming to 1.5°C with only minimal amounts of carbon dioxide removal. Under this pathway, renewables deployment in Pakistan could accelerate steeply by leveraging the country's significant renewables potential. Allocating just 0.07% of Pakistan's land for solar energy could satisfy its electricity needs, provided adequate storage is deployed, which would entail significant investments.⁶ Pakistan’s solar potential, coupled with the rapidly declining cost of solar panels, has already driven a surge in imports by individuals and private stakeholders seeking to overcome the grid's limitations. In the first six months of 2024 alone, imports amounted to the equivalent of 13 GW.⁷

In the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway, renewables generate 80% of Pakistan’s electricity by 2030, creating widespread employment opportunities for citizens.⁸ In the meantime, the contribution of gas to the power mix is halved by the end of this decade, while coal drops to less than 1% of power generation.

Under all the assessed 1.5°C pathways, renewables would account for more than 80% of the power mix by 2030, reaching 98% by 2040.

Graph description

Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling power carbon intensity
Data References
- IEA, World Energy Balances 2023
- IEA, Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy, 2023.

Power capacity investments

Pakistan has existing frameworks and initiatives that can be built on to drive investments toward the renewable power sector and transition it out of its current crisis.⁹

The Deep Electrification pathway (which envisions rapid electrification driving fossil fuels out of the energy system) sees the highest level of investment in renewable capacity of the analysed pathways which would require significant international support. Investments in wind and solar ramp up quickly, reaching an average of USD 11 billion annually between 2026–2030. In the 2030s, the majority of renewables investment goes to solar PV, leveraging the country’s solar potential, before shifting to wind in the 2040s.

From a combined capacity of 3 GW in 2021, these investments would see solar capacity reach 76 GW by 2030 and 438 GW by 2040. Wind capacity would grow to 74 GW by 2040.¹⁰ Other renewable power sources, like hydro, would play a small but stabilising role in Pakistan's power system, supported by around USD 11 billion between 2026-2040.

Under the Net-Zero Commitments pathway, renewable investments grow more steadily, with solar PV capacity reaching 274 GW by 2040, compared to 50 and 17 GW for wind power and other renewable electricity sources, respectively.

These figures exclude the costs of upgrading the grid, which will be necessary for integrating renewable capacity and preventing reliability challenges like the 2022 load-shedding events.¹¹ Pakistan’s 2021 NDC estimates that grid investments of USD 20 billion will be required by 2040 to support 60% of renewable power generation – a clean energy penetration well below what would be needed to align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway.¹²^,¹³ Pakistan will require international support to secure the necessary investments for achieving this pace of renewable energy sources deployment and successfully integrating them into its energy system.

Pakistan's renewable electricity investments and capacities

Billion USD / yr

Scaling

Relative
Absolute

Dimension

Investments
Capacity

Graph description

Average annual investments in power sector renewable electricity capacity and cumulative installed power capacities across time under 1.5°C compatible pathways downscaled at country levels.

Methodology
- Power Investments

Indicator	2019	2030	2035	2040	2050	Decarbonised power sector by
Carbon intensity of power gCO₂/kWh	400	36 to 76	7 to 16	1 to 2	0 to 1	2037 to 2039
Relative to reference year in %		-91 to -81%	-98 to -96%	-100 to -100%	-100 to -100%

Indicator	2019	2030	2035	2040	2050
Share of unabated coal per cent	19	0 to 1	0 to 0	0 to 0	0 to 0
Share of unabated gas per cent	34	7 to 16	2 to 4	0 to 0	0 to 0
Share of renewable energy per cent	28	80 to 91	95 to 97	98 to 99	99 to 99

BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are power benchmarks defined?
Data References
- IEA, World Energy Balances 2023
- Download data as CSV

IEA, “Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy” (Paris: IEA, 2023) ↩
IEA, “World Energy Balances 2023” (IEA, 2023) ↩
IEA, “Country Profile - Pakistan,” 2024. ↩
The Express Tribune, “Load Shedding: Power and Water Shortages at Public Hospitals,” 2023. ↩
Reuters, “Exclusive: Pakistan Plans to Quadruple Domestic Coal-Fired Power, Move Away from Gas,” 2023; Carbon Brief, “The Carbon Brief Profile: Pakistan,” 2023. ↩
World Bank, “Expanding Renewable Energy in Pakistan’s Electricity Mix,” 2020. ↩
World Economic Forum, “Pakistan Is Experiencing a Solar Power Boom. Here’s What We Can Learn from It,” 2024. ↩
World Bank, “Renewable Energy Jobs and Sector Skills Mapping for Pakistan,” 2022 ↩
Green Finance & Development Center, “Sunrise and Sunset – Accelerating Coal Phase down and Green Energy Deployment in Pakistan: An Analysis of the Political Economy,” 2023. ↩
IRENA, “Renewable Energy Statistics 2024,” July 11, 2024 ↩
IEA, “Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions,” 2023. ↩
Government of Pakistan, “Updated Nationally Determined Contributions 2021,” 2021. ↩
We note that, in its NDC, the government of Pakistan discusses the “energy mix” when it mentions aspirations such as “by 2030, 60% of all energy produced in the country will be generated from renewable energy resources, including hydropower.” However, it seems to be referring to the power mix, as suggested elsewhere in the publication. For instance, the section discussing the energy mix mentions “The share of renewables in recent years has increased significantly from 0.25% in 2015 to 5% in 2019,” and Table 4.2 refers to “at least 20% RE generation by 2025 and at least 60% by 2030.” This aspirational goal is therefore assumed to refer to power generation. ↩

What is Pakistan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Decarbonising the power sector

Pakistan's power mix

terawatt-hour per year

Pakistan's power sector emissions and carbon intensity

MtCO₂/yr

Power capacity investments

Pakistan's renewable electricity investments and capacities

Billion USD / yr

1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks

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