What is Pakistan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Decarbonising the power sector
Pakistan’s power sector accounted for 12% of total GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) in 2022, with emissions doubling since 2000 due to its reliance on fossil fuels.1 In 2022, nearly 60% of generation came from fossil fuels (largely from imported LNG), 25% from renewables (predominantly hydropower) and the remainder from nuclear.2 Despite a gradual decline in carbon intensity, fossil lock-in continues to shape the sector’s trajectory.
Pakistan's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.
Methodology
Data References
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In Pakistan, the fifth most populous country, 4.4% of the population, which is over 11 million, still lacks electricity and the per capita consumption (0.518 MWh) is far below the global average (3.474 MWh).3,4 Reliance on imported fossil fuels, especially LNG, makes its power sector highly vulnerable to global price swings. In 2023, a surge in LNG prices compounded existing economic in the country, and made LNG unaffordable in Pakistan – contributing to a major power outage in 2023.5,6 However, instead of shifting toward (cheaper) renewable energy to avoid overreliance on fossil fuels and enhance its energy security, the government plans to quadruple domestic coal-fired power, which makes the sector difficult to aligning with 1.5°C.7
Across our 1.5°C compatible pathways, coal is effectively phased out by 2030. Under the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway, which limits warming to 1.5°C with only minimal amounts of carbon dioxide removal, gas is gradually reduced to 16% by 2030 and phased out by 2040, while renewables quickly ramp up to reach 80% of the electricity mix by 2030.8 This would enable near-complete power sector decarbonisation by 2040 under the pathways.
Early studies already show that renewables are Pakistan’s cheapest electricity option, offering energy security, cost savings, and large-scale job creation.9,10,11 With abundant solar potential and falling solar panel prices, Pakistan could prioritise solar-plus-storage expansion, alongside grid modernisation, smart metering, and regulatory reform to support renewable integration and scale-up, with international support.12,13
Pakistan's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Power capacity investments
Pakistan’s recent solar boom, making it the world’s third largest solar panels importer, has shown a huge demand for solar power among the population.14,15 Pakistan can build on its existing frameworks and initiatives to drive investments toward the renewable power sector, meeting its national solar demand and transitioning it out of its current fossil fuel-driven energy crisis while also bringing other social benefits such as improving clean power access and alleviating energy poverty.16
The Net-Zero Commitments pathway (which reaches global net zero CO2 emissions around 2050 through stringent climate policies and innovation) sees the investments in wind and solar reaching an average of USD 10 billion annually between 2026-2030 and USD 11 billion annually between 2041-2050. In the 2030s, the majority of renewables investment goes to solar PV, leveraging the country’s solar potential, before shifting to wind in the 2040s.
From a combined wind and solar capacity of 2.4 GW in 2021 (which increased to 5.7GW in FY2025 including more than 2.8GW of net metering), these investments are expected to expand the total capacity nearly thirty-fold to 69 GW (with solar accounting for 62%) by 2030 from 2021 levels. 17,18 By 2050, solar capacity will grow tenfold from 2030 levels to 441 GW, while wind capacity will grow nearly fivefold. 19
Other renewable power sources, like hydro, would play a small but stabilising role in Pakistan's power system, supported by around USD 34 billion between 2026-2050. In the first nine months of FY2025, Pakistan’s oil import bill alone reached nearly USD 12 billion, underscoring the economic rationale to accelerate the energy transition.20
These figures exclude the costs of upgrading the grid, which will be necessary for integrating renewable capacity and preventing reliability challenges like the 2022 load-shedding events.21
Pakistan’s 2025 NDC estimates that USD 163.7 bn is required to support its low-carbon power transition including distribution. This includes reaching a renewable target (including hydro) of 38 GW by 2035, or 62% of the power mix – a clean energy penetration well below what would be needed to align with 1.5°C.22,23,24 For comparison, across all pathways, USD 110 -140 bn would be required until 2035 to align Pakistan’s power sector with 1.5°C by ramping up renewables, excluding grid investments. Pakistan will require international support to secure the necessary investments for this pace of renewables deployment, as well as to successfully integrate them into its energy system.
Pakistan's renewable electricity investments and capacities
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Average annual investments in power sector renewable electricity capacity and cumulative installed power capacities across time under 1.5°C compatible pathways downscaled at country levels.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Pakistan
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Power sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
394
|
36 to
76
|
7 to
16
|
1 to
2
|
0 to
1
|
2037 to
2039
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-91 to
-81%
|
-98 to
-96%
|
-100 to
-99%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
%
|
16
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
%
|
27
|
7 to
16
|
2 to
4
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of renewable energy
%
|
25
|
80 to
91
|
95 to
97
|
98 to
99
|
99 to
99
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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