What is Bosnia and Herzegovina's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Industry

Energy-related emissions of the industrial sector in BiH fell by 55% from their peak at 5.91 MtCO₂e in 1990 to 2.66 MtCO₂e in 2019. In the same period, the share of electricity in the sector’s energy mix nearly doubled from 23% to 43%, while the share of fossil fuels dropped from 76% to 55%. Concurrently, process-related emissions fell by 10% from about 4.3 MtCO₂e to 3.8 MtCO₂e, predominantly due to the slow post-war recovery in industrial sectors such as steel, iron, cement, and lime production.1

Bosnia and Herzegovina's energy mix in the industry sector

petajoule per year

Scaling

Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector.

All 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here show an increased role for electricity in the industry sector’s energy mix, rising to 80-87% by 2050, accompanied by a fall in the share of unabated fossil fuels. All pathways bar the high carbon dioxide removal (CDR) pathway require an almost complete phase-out of coal from the industry sector by 2050. Given that CDR is currently unproven at scale and prohibitively expensive, relying on unproven technologies to justify continued coal use is extremely risky. Hydrogen and heat play a minor role in the energy mix in all scenarios, whereas biomass plays a more significant role in the high CDR and low energy demand scenarios.

There are currently no nationwide policies targeting energy efficiency and decarbonisation of the industry sector. However, both FBiH2 and RS3 have adopted a framework energy strategy for the period up to 2035 that mandates energy audits for consumers of over 10 GWh of energy annually, the promotion of cogeneration with biomass, as well as other energy efficiency measures (fuel switching, combustion optimisation, replacement of ageing equipment). Greater electrification and a shift to renewable energy sources, particularly in energy-intensive metal production which consumes between 67% and 97% of the fossil fuels in the sector’s energy mix,4 are crucial to achieving a 1.5°C aligned industrial sector.

Bosnia and Herzegovina's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)

MtCO₂/yr

Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).

Bosnia and Herzegovina's GHG emissions from industrial processes

MtCO₂e/yr

1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks

Direct CO₂ emissions, shares of electricity, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Bosnia and Herzegovina

Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Decarbonised industry sector by
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
3
1 to 2
0 to 1
0 to 0
2040 to 2052
Relative to reference year in %
-64 to -41%
-95 to -66%
-99 to -83%
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Share of electricity
per cent
43
46 to 60
67 to 76
80 to 87
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass
per cent
45
54 to 63
79 to 80
90 to 91

Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.

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