What is Canada's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Buildings
Decarbonising the building sector
In 2022, the buildings sector accounted for 11% of Canada’s total emissions.1 About half of the sector’s energy demand is met by fossil fuels, largely fossil gas, with the remaining half met mostly by electricity as well as small contributions from biomass and heat.2
Canada's energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the buildings sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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While all pathways see the buildings sector decarbonised in the 2040s, the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway shows the most rapid shift away from fossil fuels. The share of electricity increases to 93% by 2050, achieved largely through strong reductions in fossil fuel consumption and only a moderate increase in electricity consumption. Adopting and strengthening policies that accelerate energy-efficient renovations and retrofits would help shift Canada towards this pathway.
In contrast, the Deep Electrification pathway has slightly higher energy demand in the buildings sector, but more than doubles electricity consumption by 2050. As over 96% of direct buildings emissions are from space and water heating, electrification of these activities through the uptake of heat pumps is critical to decarbonising the sector.3
Canada has already made some progress in this space. In 2022, Canada adopted new building codes which include a ‘net zero energy ready’ level with the goal that by 2030, all new buildings are net zero energy ready.4 Canada also had the goal of achieving a 3-5% annual deep retrofit rate by 2025 which was abruptly cancelled following a wave of retrofits until then reaching 600,000 households and has several grant programmes to support the uptake of heat pumps.5,6,7
Canada's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and biomass in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Canada
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Buildings sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
73
|
52 to
63
|
34 to
47
|
12 to
25
|
1 to
8
|
2042 to
2048
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-29 to
-14%
|
-53 to
-36%
|
-84 to
-66%
|
-99 to
-89%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
31
|
52 to
54
|
63 to
65
|
79 to
81
|
93 to
93
|
|
Share of heat
%
|
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
|
Share of hydrogen
%
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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