What is South Africa's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Buildings
In 2020, over 67% of the population lived in urban areas and by 2050 that number is projected to reach nearly 80%.1 South Africa faces the dual challenge of urbanisation and the imperative of building proper housing for existing inhabitants of the cities. The residential sector’s share of total final energy consumption has decreased slightly from about 20% in 1990 to 18% in 2019, whereas public and commercial share has increased from 4.7% to 7.7% in the same time.2 Direct emissions from the building sector made up 8% of total CO₂ emissions in 2020.3
South Africa's energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the buildings sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Our analysis indicates that to achieve a 1.5°C compatible pathway the buildings sector would need to be decarbonised between 2030 and 2041. For this to be possible, electrification (produced using renewables) would need to be upscaled from 33% in 2019 to over 90% by 2050. Hydrogen is not likely to play a role before 2030 and is projected to remain under 5% of the total mix in the sector thereafter.
Mandatory energy efficiency codes have been introduced for new residential and non-residential buildings, but not for existing buildings. Building inefficient, poorly designed buildings in the present locks in future high energy use as buildings can have a lifespan of between 40-120 years.4 The Post-2015 National Energy Efficiency Strategy provides targets for energy consumption reductions relative to 2015 levels: a 50% reduction in public buildings, 30% in residential building stock, and 37% in the commercial sector.5
South Africa's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and hydrogen in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for South Africa
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised buildings sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
34
|
1 to
8
|
0 to
4
|
0 to
2
|
2030 to
2041
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-98 to
-75%
|
-100 to
-89%
|
-100 to
-95%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
33
|
64 to
94
|
81 to
99
|
90 to
99
|
|
Share of heat
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
1
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
4
|
0 to
4
|
0 to
5
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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