What is South Africa's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Decarbonising the power sector
South Africa’s power sector is dominated by coal, which accounted for 87% of generation in 2021.1 Under 1.5°C compatible pathways, coal would be phased out between 2030 and 2035.
Despite plans under the Just Energy Transition Partnership to speed up the transition away from coal, South Africa’s draft energy plan proposes to delay the decommissioning of some coal plants by as much as ten years.2
The 2023 draft also envisions less renewables in the power system than the previous plan,3 reaching only an estimated 22% by 2030 rather than 33%,4 well short of the 75-93% required under a 1.5°C compatible pathway. Market signals, such as record-breaking imports of solar components in 2023, indicate a much more rapid deployment of renewables is underway.5
South Africa's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.
Methodology
Data References
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Of the illustrative pathways analysed, the Net-Zero Commitments pathway shows the most rapid decarbonisation of the power sector, reducing the carbon intensity of the sector 95% relative to 2021. This is enabled by a rapid uptake of renewables reaching 93% of generation by 2030 and near phase out of coal by 2030.
The Deep Electrification pathway, which best captures the rapid cost reductions seen in wind and solar over the past decade and the potential for future progress, sees similar carbon intensity reductions while meeting higher demand. Closing the supply gap in the power sector is crucial to addressing South Africa’s energy crisis.
Although illustrative pathways initially introduce some gas to the power system, it is effectively phased out in the 2030s creating high risk of stranded assets. The 2023 draft energy plan update aims to add a significant amount of additional gas capacity beyond what is already procured, including 6 GW through Eskom and the IPP Programme.6
South Africa's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for South Africa
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
896
|
43 to
138
|
2 to
15
|
0 to
4
|
-2 to
3
|
2035 to
2040
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-95 to
-85%
|
-100 to
-98%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
87
|
2 to
11
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
12
|
0 to
3
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
7
|
75 to
93
|
93 to
99
|
92 to
100
|
86 to
100
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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