Industry

Myanmar’s industrial sector has contributed an increasing share to GDP as the country has seen a structural change away from agriculture. As this has occurred, industry’s share of final energy consumption has also increased.¹ In 2019, the sector consumed 160 PJ of energy of which 59% came from oil and 17% from electricity. Coal, gas, and biomass made up the remaining 8%, 7%, and 9% respectively. The increased energy consumption seen since 2010 has been primarily due to greater use of oil, which increased 10-fold between 2010 and 2019.² As a result, over this time, emissions of industrial energy demand have risen from 2.3 to 8.9 MtCO₂.

Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector.

Graph description

Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling the energy mix in the final energy demand sectors
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

As part of its NDC, Myanmar has put forth the goal of a 6.63% reduction, relative to 2012, in industrial energy consumption. This target stands in sharp contrast to the increase observed since 2010.³ While energy efficiency is an important aspect of developing a sustainable industrial sector, electrification through a decarbonised, renewable power system is also of critical importance.⁴ In the case of Myanmar, developing a sustainable industrial base is also contingent on diversifying the economy away from its current reliance on fossil fuel rents.⁵

The 1.5°C pathways see an increased use of electricity in the industrial sector, reaching around a third of final consumption by 2050. Biomass and hydrogen (only in one scenario) use would also increase so that, together with electricity, these would account for up to three-fifths of energy consumption by 2050. Emissions of energy demands would reach net zero around 2050. Again, this assumes that the power sector is decarbonised as described above.

Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).

Graph description

Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling power carbon intensity
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021
- Historical energy emissions : IEA GHG emissions from Energy database 2021

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Data References
- Sectoral emissions from PRIMAP-Hist 2021 scaled to total GHG emissions of the country

Indicator	2019	2030	2040	2050	Decarbonised industry sector by
Direct CO₂ emissions MtCO₂/yr	10	4 to 6	1 to 3	0 to 1	2044 to 2051
Relative to reference year in %		-60 to -44%	-89 to -69%	-98 to -89%

Indicator	2019	2030	2040	2050
Share of electricity per cent	17	10 to 28	20 to 35	33 to 35
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass per cent	26	18 to 40	31 to 56	48 to 62

Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.

Industrial gross value added contributed 38% to GDP in 2019, up from 25.6% in 2010. Over the same period, industrial final energy consumption’s share of the total increased from 10% to 19%. ↩
Oil consumption increased from 9.6 PJ/yr in 2010 to 94.6 PJ/yr in 2019. Over the same time, total final energy consumption in industry increased from 53.5 PJ/yr to 160 PJ/yr. Oil thus accounted for around 80% of consumption growth. ↩
The energy consumption reduction target is also at odds with forecasts put forth in the 2015 Energy Master Plan. That document projected that industrial final energy consumption would increase at an annual growth rate of 11.6% under a “medium” scenario where the country’s GDP would grow at 7.1% per year over this time.[^6] More recently, a report by the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia found that under BAU, industry’s final energy consumption would grow from 5.7 Mtoe in 2016 to around 10 Mtoe by 2030 and above 15 Mtoe by 2040. Under scenarios which assume a higher energy efficiency or lower GDP, industry’s 2040 consumption would be between 10 and 15 Mtoe.[^7] ↩
Climate Analytics. Decarbonising South and South East Asia. (2019). ↩
The 2015 Energy Master Plan notes that offshore natural gas production and export had been the largest driver of economic growth in the decade leading up to 2012.[^8] ↩

What is Myanmar's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Myanmar's energy mix in the industry sector

petajoule per year

Myanmar's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)

MtCO₂/yr

Myanmar's GHG emissions from industrial processes

MtCO₂e/yr

1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks

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