What is Mexico's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Mexico
Economy wide
Our analysis shows that to align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Mexico would need to reduce its domestic emissions by 46% below 2015 levels excluding LULUCF, equivalent to 399 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030.
Mexico's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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2030 NDC
Mexico submitted a new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) during COP27. The NDC includes both unconditional and conditional targets relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Mexico unconditionally commits to reducing emissions by up to 35% by 2030 and to reducing emissions by 40% below BAU by 2030 on the condition that it receives adequate international support. The conditional target is estimated to result in emissions 5% above, to 6% below 2015 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF.1,2
2050 Ambition
To align with a 1.5˚C compatible pathway, Mexico’s mid-century GHG emissions should be around 64-133 MtCO₂e/yr, excluding LULUCF, equivalent to reductions of around 80–91% below 2015 emissions levels.3
Net zero
Across all Paris Agreement compatible pathways, the net zero year is achieved through significant reductions in the energy, industry, and waste sectors.
Sectors
Power
- The carbon intensity of Mexico’s power sector would need to reduce from 410 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to 30–110 gCO₂/kWh by 2030 and to zero by 2040. Mexico’s target for the power sector is to have 40% of the electricity generated by “clean” energy sources by 2034.4 However, the target is not in line with the 1.5°C compatible pathways which would require a 76–92% renewable energy share by 2030.
- Mexico could decarbonise its power sector by phasing out unabated coal and gas by 2029 and 2038–2040, respectively. However, citing the impacts of the pandemic, the current administration has cancelled upcoming renewable energy auctions and passed regulations that favour fossil fuel generation.5
Buildings
- Our analysis of the 1.5°C compatible pathways suggests that the building sector would need to achieve decarbonisation by latest 2045.
- Mexico has energy efficiency policies in place for commercial, public, and private buildings.
- Under 1.5°C scenarios, the share of electrification in the building sector’s final energy demand nearly doubles from 2019 levels to around 70% by 2030.
Industry
- Industry emissions in Mexico accounted for around 24% of the country total carbon footprint in 2017, 14% from the energy demand and 8% from industry processes. Mexico’s main industries are cement, lime production, glass and iron and steel.
- 1.5°C compatible pathways would require an increase in electrification up to 49% by 2030 and to 74-81% by 2050.
- The industrial sector is expected to continue to grow along with its emissions which means that strong mitigation measures will be needed to get on a Paris Agreement compatible pathway.
Transport
- Mexico’s NDC includes some mitigation measures for the transport sector, such as increasing fuel efficiency, improving public transport systems, and developing a national electric mobility strategy.
- However, strong measures will be required by the country to align with 1.5°C compatible pathways. Mexico would need to reduce transport sector CO₂ emissions by at least 44% below 2019 levels by 2030.