What is Mexico's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Mexico's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Mexico would need to reduce transport sector CO₂ emissions by at least 44% below 2019 levels in 2030. Under these pathways, the decreasing emissions are due mainly to an increase in electrification, biofuel consumption, and the incorporation of hydrogen into the energy mix. Electricity share of the sector would need to increase by 3-11% by 2030 and by 18-33% by 2040.
Mexico’s NDC includes some mitigation measures for the transport sector, focusing on fuel efficiency, improvements in public transport, and developing a national electric mobility strategy. However, these measures are not sufficient to significantly reduce emissions. The government also continues to subsidise petrol and diesel.
Despite an increasing trend, electric and hybrid cars sold in Mexico still represent a small percentage of total sales, with less than a 1% share in 2020.3,4 To expedite the market penetration of electric vehicles in Mexico, the government will need to invest heavily in charging infrastructure, a key factor affecting EV uptake.5 1.5°C scenarios assessed here suggest that with the right measures, the sector could be fully decarbonised around 2050.
Mexico's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Mexico
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
147
|
49 to
82
|
22 to
50
|
6 to
12
|
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-67 to
-44%
|
-85 to
-66%
|
-96 to
-92%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
0
|
3 to
11
|
18 to
33
|
30 to
65
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
16
|
15 to
39
|
7 to
45
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
11
|
7 to
48
|
21 to
48
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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