What is Mexico's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
1.5°C compatible pathways
Mexico’s updated 2020 NDC was revoked following a lawsuit for rolling back the government’s initial commitment, which goes against the Paris Agreement’s principles of non-regression.1 During COP27, Mexico submitted an updated NDC which includes both an unconditional and conditional target relative to a BAU scenario. Mexico unconditionally commits to reducing emissions by up to 35% by 2030. Of that, Mexico intends to achieve 30% with its own resources and an additional 5% with already agreed international cooperation for “clean energies”. Furthermore, Mexico commits to reducing its emissions by 40% from the BAU level by 2030 on the condition that it receives adequate international support.
Mexico’s conditional NDC target which translates into a 5% emissions increase above 2015 levels to emissions decrease of 6% below 2015 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF, is not consistent with 1.5˚C compatible domestic pathways. Our analysis indicates that Mexico would need to reduce emissions by 40–56% below 2015 levels by 2030 (excl. LULUCF) to be 1.5˚C compatible. This would mean reaching emissions levels of 338–441 MtCO₂e in 2030.2
Mexico's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Long term pathway
To align with a 1.5˚C compatible pathway, Mexico’s mid-century GHG emissions should be around 64 to 133 MtCO₂e/yr, excluding LULUCF, equivalent to reductions of around 80–91% below 2015 emissions levels.3
The pathways that show a higher share of renewable energy by 2040 show less or no reliance on carbon dioxide removal technologies. Some scenarios show a full decarbonisation of the energy sector as soon as 2040.
Some scenarios show a full decarbonisation of the energy sector as soon as 2040. The projections also suggest that agriculture and industry processes will be the last sectors to decarbonise.
Mexico's primary energy mix
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Energy system transformation
The most ambitious 1.5˚C compatible pathway analysed here suggests that to fully decarbonise Mexico’s energy mix would require unabated fossil fuel consumption to almost halve by 2030 from 2017 levels. As Mexican economy continues to rely on oil,4 the government needs a plan to transition away from this fossil fuel and onto a Paris compatible pathway. The share of renewable energy should more than triple by 2030 from 8% of the total primary energy mix in 2017. However, the Mexican government continues to prioritise investment in oil and gas for post-pandemic recovery.5
Mexico's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Mexico. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2015
Reference year
|
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
733
|
722
|
399
338 to
441
|
197
123 to
237
|
115
64 to
133
|
2063
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-46%
-54 to
-40%
|
-73%
-83 to
-68%
|
-84%
-91 to
-82%
|
|||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
526
|
494
|
279
180 to
314
|
83
-29 to
141
|
-3
-42 to
32
|
2050
2039 to
2064
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-47%
-66 to
-40%
|
-84%
-106 to
-73%
|
-101%
-108 to
-94%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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