What is Mexico's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
1.5°C pathways show that Mexico’s power sector could be fully decarbonised by 2040, and contribute to negative emissions thereafter. To achieve this, the share of renewable energy in the power mix would need to reach at least 75% by 2030, and coal and gas would need to be phased out by 2029 and 2038–2040, respectively. Decarbonising the power sector at this rate would allow Mexico to get on a 1.5°C compatible pathway without having to rely extensively on the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches.
In its mid-century strategy, the Mexican government considers nuclear, CCS and co-generation as “clean energies”. However, Mexico’s “clean” energy targets of 40% of the power mix by 2034 and 50% by 2050 are not in line with Paris-compatible pathways.1
Mexico's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
Decarbonising Mexico’s power sector by 2040 in line with 1.5°C compatible pathways would require drastic policy changes. The fossil fuel share in the power generation would need to fall from 80% in 2019 to between 8–20% by 2030. Fossil fuels should be fully phased out from the power sector by 2040. Investing in a steep increase in renewable energy over the short term is safer than relying on carbon removal technologies given the latter’s commercially unproven nature. However, Mexico has currently no plans to phase out unabated fossil fuels from the country’s power mix.
Mexico's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Mexico's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Mexico
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
413
|
28 to
105
|
0 to
1
|
-31 to
0
|
2039
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-93 to
-75%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
-108 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
8
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
58
|
7 to
14
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2038 to
2040
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
17
|
76 to
92
|
98 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
80
|
8 to
20
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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