What is Mexico's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
In 2017, Mexico’s national emissions excluding LULUCF were over 730 MtCO₂e, of which the energy sector was responsible for over 70%.1 The second biggest emitter was agriculture at about 14%, with industry and waste contributing roughly equally to the remaining 14% of the country’s total emissions. Within the energy sector, transport and power generation were the main emitters in 2017, although transport has become the highest emitting sector in recent years.2
Current policy projections indicate that Mexico’s total emissions in 2030 emissions would be between 807–831 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF.3 This range is far outside of a 1.5°C compatible emissions range. While the transport sector is the greatest contributor to overall emissions, the power sector offers the greatest opportunities for rapid decarbonisation. Through electrification, a decarbonised power sector will steer emissions reductions in end-use sectors such as transport.
Mexico's current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Last available (negative) LULUCF data point from 2017
Data References
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Energy system
Fossil fuels currently account for 85% of Mexico’s total energy supply. Oil is the largest source of primary energy at almost 50%, largely because of the high oil consumption in the transport sector.4 The role of oil in the power sector, however, has decreased over the past two decades due to a major shift to fossil gas.5
In 2015, Mexico passed the Energy Transition Law which set targets to achieve 25% “clean” power generation by 2018, 30% by 2021, and 35% by 2024. Additional targets were set under the National Climate Change Strategy: 40% clean power by 2034 and 50% by 2050.6 However, Mexico’s definition of “clean energy” includes nuclear, CCS, and efficient co-generation.7,8 Mexico did not meet its 2018, or 2021 clean energy targets and is not on track to meet its 2024 target either.9
In 2020 the government rolled back new renewable energy projects, citing energy security concerns due to the COVID-19 pandemic.10 The government has also prioritised the modernisation of existing fossil fuel plants and refineries, while recently cancelling the fourth clean energy auction.
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Baseline scenario target
NDC target
Conditional target:
- 40% below BAU by 2030 incl. LULUCF.
6% below 2015 by 2030 excl. LULUCF (689 MtCO₂e/yr).11 - Black carbon reduced by 70% below BAU by 2030 incl. LULUCF.
Unconditional target:
- 35% below BAU by 2030 incl. LULUCF, whereby 30% to be achieved with the country’s own resources and additional 5% with already agreed international cooperation on “clean energy sources/projects”.12
- 7% above 2015 levels by 2030 excl. LULUCF (786 MtCO2/yr).13
- Black carbon reduced by 51% below BAU by 2030.14
Market mechanisms
- Current NDC does not indicate the use of market mechanisms in its implementation.
Long-term target
Mexico has submitted a long-term strategy in 2016 to the UNFCCC.15
Sectoral targets
Energy
- Reducing emissions from the oil and gas sectors by 14%.16,17
- Mexico has set a target of 98% utilisation of methane gas for the oil sector as part of its commitment to reduce methane emissions and the Global methane commitment.
Power
- Integrating clean energy into the electricity generation.
- Building four new hydropower plants with a capacity of 284 MW.
- Increasing the generation of photovoltaic, wind and geothermal power plants.
Transport
- Consolidating the National electric mobility strategy.18,19
- Expanding the rail network.
- Promoting the transition to more efficient vehicles and clean transport.
Buildings
- Promoting energy savings and energy efficiency regulations.
*Reducing wood consumption in rural areas.
Waste
- Improving the management of urban and industrial solid waste and wastewater.
- Implementing the National Circular Economy Strategy.
Agriculture
- Promoting agroecological practices and conservation agriculture.
- Decreasing the use of fertilisers.
- Promoting agro-forestry and pastoral systems.