What is Mexico's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Decarbonising the transport sector
Mexico’s transport sector is almost totally reliant on oil, which accounted for over 99% of the fuel mix in 2021. Decarbonising transport will involve replacing oil with sustainable fuels, primarily electricity generated from renewables.
Mexico's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The Deep Electrification pathway, which best captures the rapid cost reductions seen in renewables over the past decade and the potential for future deployment, shows the fastest electrification rate. By 2050, electricity could make up 56% of the fuel mix, which can be achieved through increased use of electric vehicles and trains.
The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway sees the focus shift to lower final energy demand alongside a higher share of biofuels. Measures such as improved public transport systems powered by biofuels can help to achieve this pathway, something which is currently being considered among Mexican researchers and industry.1 This pathway initially sees greater electrification (8%) than biofuel use (2%) in 2040. As biofuel technology develops, however, it increases to 71% of the mix in 2050 while electrification accounts for 27% of the transport mix.
While the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway highlights a potential 1.5°C aligned trajectory for Mexico, there are significant practical and sustainability challenges associated with high biofuel use that are important that are important to consider.
The Deep Electrification pathway also aligns more with the government’s outlook for the transport sector, with the government aiming for 50% of vehicle sales in 2030 to be electric or hybrid, and President Sheinbaum indicating preference for electromobility. 2,3,4 For electric vehicles to be rolled out at scale, investments will need to be directed towards charging infrastructure, which is currently lacking in Mexico.5
Mexico's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Mexico
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
105
|
131 to
177
|
118 to
182
|
87 to
180
|
0 to
139
|
2050 to
2057
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
25 to
69%
|
12 to
73%
|
-17 to
71%
|
-100 to
32%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
5
|
2 to
16
|
4 to
33
|
14 to
56
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
2
|
7 to
71
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
1 to
2
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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