What is Mexico's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Decarbonising the transport sector
Mexico’s transport sector is almost totally reliant on oil, which accounted for over 99% of the fuel mix in 2022. Decarbonising transport will involve replacing oil with electricity generated from renewables and other sustainable fuels.
Mexico's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
-
Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
-
The Deep Electrification pathway, which best captures the rapid cost reductions seen in renewables over the past decade and the potential for future deployment, shows the fastest electrification rate. By 2050, electricity could make up 56% of the transport fuel mix, which can be achieved through increased use of electric vehicles (EVs) and trains.
As final energy demand in 2050 is 8% lower than 2022 levels under the Deep Electrification pathway, managing demand through an expansion of public transport will likely be required to align with this pathway. Much of Mexico City’s public transport is already electrified and, as it is designed to be affordable, supports uptake. 1 Continued electrification of Mexico’s public transport system beyond Mexico City can drive a modal shift away from cars.
The Deep Electrification pathway assumes rapid electrification of the transport sector, driven in part by EV subsidies and a rollout of charging infrastructure. President Sheinbaum has indicated a preference for electromobility as a means to cut transport emissions, and the government aims for 50% of vehicle sales in 2030 and 100% by 2035 to be electric or hybrid.2,3,4,5
There has been a significant increase in EV and hybrid EV sales in 2025, the majority have been hybrids which do not deliver the necessary emissions reductions to align with 1.5°C.6 For electric vehicles to be rolled out at scale, investments will need to be directed towards charging infrastructure, which is currently lacking in Mexico.7 Only 7.5% of Mexico’s charging stations are publicly accessible, representing a bottleneck to EV uptake.8
Mexico's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
-
Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
-
1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Mexico
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Transport sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
130
|
131 to
177
|
118 to
182
|
87 to
180
|
0 to
139
|
2050 to
2057
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
1 to
36%
|
-9 to
40%
|
-33 to
38%
|
-100 to
7%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
0
|
1 to
5
|
2 to
16
|
4 to
33
|
14 to
56
|
|
Share of biofuels
%
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
2
|
7 to
71
|
|
Share of hydrogen
%
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
1 to
2
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
-
Methodology
Data References
-