What is Mexico's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Current Situation

Emissions profile

Mexico’s GHG emissions reached 789 MtCO2e (excl. LULUCF) in 2022. The energy sector is responsible for 64% of overall emissions, making it a critical sector to decarbonise in the near term. In terms of energy use, transport is the largest energy user and Mexico’s highest emitting sector, accounting for 20% of total emissions, closely followed by the power sector (19%). Mexico’s non-fossil fuel industry (particularly cement and iron & steel) is responsible for 18% of total emissions, while the domestic fossil fuel industry accounts for an additional 12%.1,2

Agriculture is also a major emitter at 19% of total emissions, most of which is livestock related methane emissions, or nitrous oxide emissions driven by synthetic fertilisers.3,4 Mexico is the world’s 13th largest methane emitter.5 with over half of this coming from agriculture and the other half from the fossil fuel industry and waste. Methane emissions in 2024 were 67% higher than 1990 levels.6

Prior to the election of Claudia Sheinbaum in 2024, Mexico’s previous administration heavily favoured fossil fuels over renewables.7,8 The Sheinbaum administration has seen Mexico take a more positive stance towards emissions reduction policies, including limits on oil production and investments in renewables.9 However, a 40% cut to environmental spending in the 2026 budget alongside increased funding for Pemex (the heavily indebted state-owned oil company) contradicts recent messaging around climate change.10

Mexico's 2022 GHG emissions

excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions. Individual sector rounding may lead to small inconsistencies in total sum.

Energy overview and main policy gaps

In 2024, fossil fuels contributed 90% of Mexico’s total energy supply. Fossil gas accounted for the largest share (45.5%), followed by oil (40%) and coal (4%). Renewables (including biomass and hydro) comprised 9% of the energy mix, while nuclear made up 1.5%.11

Mexico has significant potential for increased deployment of renewable energy, particularly solar. Since 2024, investment in renewables has grown as the government aims to increase the share of renewables in Mexico’s electricity mix to 45% by 2030.12,13,14 This will be achieved through investments of USD 23.4 billion, around half of which will be directed towards electricity generation and the other half towards transmission and distribution networks.15,16

While rolling out renewables is one part of aligning with 1.5°C; the other part is phasing out fossil fuels. President Sheinbaum’s announcement that oil production will be capped at 1.8 million barrels per day (roughly what is currently produced) is a positive step, but this remains far too high.17,18 Aligning with the Paris Agreement would see Mexico produce an energy transition plan with a clear timeline that identifies the most cost-effective way of phasing out fossil fuels from the energy system.19

Targets and commitments

In November 2025, Mexico submitted a 2035 indicative target in a new NDC. Analysis including numbers which are directly comparable to our pathways is underway.

Unconditional 2035 target in 2025 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

  • Mexico aims to achieve net emissions of between 364 and 404 million tons of CO2e equivalent in 2035 on an unconditional basis.20

Conditional 2035 target in 2025 NDC:

  • Mexico could achieve net emissions of between 332 and 363 MtCO2e, conditional on the mobilisation of financing, technology transfer, and the transfer of technology and know-how.

Unconditional 2030 target in 2022 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

  • Up to a 35% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions compared to the business as usual (BAU) scenario, with domestic resources contributing 30% and the additional 5% coming from ‘agreed international support and cooperation for clean energies’.21

When excluding LULUCF, Mexico’s unconditional target translates to:

  • 803–880 MtCO2e in 2030, or 5–15% above 2015 levels.22

Note: only the 30% below BAU reduction achieved with Mexico’s own resources is considered in the Climate Action Tracker’s assessment of the unconditional target.

Conditional 2030 target in 2022 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

  • 40% GHG emissions reduction compared to BAU, contingent on a scaling up of international finance, innovation and technology transfer

When excluding LULUCF, Mexico’s conditional target translates to:

  • 704–780 MtCO2e in 2030, or 8% below to 2% above 2015 levels

Long-term target

Mexico does not have a net zero target. However, its Climate Change Mid-Century Strategy, published in 2016, aims to cut emissions by 50% by 2050 compared to 2000.23

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