What is Mexico's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Current Situation

Emissions profile

Mexico’s GHG emissions reached 777 MtCO2e (excluding LULUCF) in 2024.1 The energy sector is responsible for 63% of overall emissions. Within the energy sector, the power and transport sectors are the highest emitters, contributing 20% and 19% of Mexico’s total emissions, respectively. Both sectors’ heavy reliance on fossil fuels (gas for power and oil for transport) accounted for their high emissions.2

Mexico’s emissions have slowly risen since 2015, when they were 742 MtCO2e (excluding LULUCF). Under the current administration, climate policy has somewhat improved, with a net zero target and 2035 emissions reduction target announced. However, implementation still lags behind, highlighting the lack of sectoral targets and insufficient coordination across government.3

Mexican industry (particularly cement and iron & steel) was responsible for 17% of total emissions in 2024, with an almost even split between emissions from fossil fuel combustion and process-related emissions. Mexico’s domestic fossil fuel industry accounted for an additional 13% of total emissions.4,5

Agriculture is also a major emitter at 18% of total emissions, most of which is livestock related methane emissions, or nitrous oxide emissions mostly caused by synthetic fertilisers. Mexico is the world’s 10th largest methane emitter, with over half of this coming from agriculture and the other half from the fossil fuel industry and waste sectors.6

Mexico's 2024 GHG emissions

excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions. Individual sector rounding may lead to small inconsistencies in total sum.

Energy

Mexico is heavily reliant on fossil fuels, which met 89% of its primary energy consumption in 2023. Oil accounted for the largest share (43%), followed by gas (41%) and coal (5%). Renewables (including biomass and hydro) comprised 9% of the energy mix, while nuclear made up just under 2%.7 Recently released data for 2024 suggests that, for the first time in Mexico’s history, oil has been displaced by gas as the most consumed fuel in Mexico. Gas met 45% of energy demand in 2024, while oil’s share – which has steadily dropped since 2012 – fell to 40%.8

Mexico’s current approach to energy policy is inconsistent, with efforts to promote renewables contradicted by support for fossil fuel production. Mexico has set out three 2030 scenarios for electricity generation, with the share of clean energy ranging from 36-45%.9 Investments of USD 23.4 bn are expected in order to meet the more ambitious 45% target, around half of which would be directed towards electricity generation and the other half towards transmission and distribution networks.10,11 However, Mexico will direct some of these funds towards gas cogeneration and combined-cycle gas plants.12,13 In December 2025, 20 new wind and solar projects worth USD 4.7 bn in private sector investment were announced, backed by state investment in transmission infrastructure.14

Yet Mexico’s renewables rollout is undermined by efforts to sustain its domestic fossil fuel industry. Pemex, the state-owned energy company, aims to produce 1.8 million barrels of oil per day in 2035.15 The current administration has also opened the door to domestic fracking to increase fossil gas production, despite significant public resistance.16, 17

Energy security and national sovereignty is cited as a key reason to boost domestic gas production, with reliance on imported gas from the United States seen as a potential vulnerability if the US seeks to apply pressure during trade negotiations.18,19 Reflecting the inherent contradictions in current Mexican policy, Mexico’s environmental future is also cited as a reason to boost gas production, despite gas being one of the main contributors to global warming.20 Any new fossil gas project breaches Mexico’s environmental obligations under the Paris Agreement, as well as potentially breaching international law.21

Mexico can instead enhance its energy independence by doubling down on renewables. Aligning with the Paris Agreement would see Mexico produce an energy transition plan with a clear timeline to phase out fossil fuels from the energy system.

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