What is Mexico's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Mexico’s GHG emissions reached 738 MtCO2e (excl. LULUCF) in 2019. The energy sector is responsible for 66% of overall emissions, making it a critical sector to decarbonise in the near term. In terms of energy use, transport is the largest energy user and contributes 21% of Mexico’s emissions, followed by power (19%). Mexico’s industry sector is responsible for 18% of total emissions, while the domestic fossil fuel industry accounts for 13%. Agriculture is also a major emitter at 18% of total emissions.1
Mexico’s climate policy has undergone several changes over the last few years and recent years have seen Mexico back fossil fuels while policies promoting renewables have been rolled back.2,3 The election of Claudia Sheinbaum has seen the government take a more positive stance towards emissions reduction policies, including limits on oil production, investments in renewables, and redirecting USD 24 billion from military spending to reforestation activities.4,5
Mexico's 2019 GHG emissions
excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector.
Data References
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Energy overview and main policy gaps
In 2023, 89% of Mexico’s primary energy mix came from fossil fuels. Oil accounted for the largest share (43%), followed by gas (41%) and coal (4%). Renewables (including biomass and hydro) comprised 10% of the energy mix, while nuclear made up 2%.6
Mexico has significant potential for increased deployment of renewable energy, particularly solar. Despite investment plunging in recent years as the previous administration stopped issuing permits and cancelled auctions, there are indications that Mexico is becoming more open to clean energy projects.7 The Sheinbaum administration has committed to increasing the share of renewables in Mexico’s electricity mix to 45% by 2030.8, 9, 10 This will be achieved through USD 23.4 billion investments, around half of which will be directed towards electricity generation and the other half towards transmission and distribution networks.11,12
While rolling out renewables is one part of aligning with 1.5°C; the other part is phasing out fossil fuels. Currently Mexico has almost 9 GW of oil and gas capacity in the pipeline.13 Although Sheinbaum’s announcement that oil production will be capped at 1.8 million barrels per day (roughly what is currently produced) is a positive step, this remains far too high.14,15 Aligning with the Paris Agreement would see Mexico produce an energy transition plan which identifies the most cost-effective way of phasing out fossil fuels from the energy system.16
Targets and commitments
Unconditional target in 2022 NDC:
- As expressed by the country:
Up to a 35% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions compared to the business as usual (BAU) scenario, with domestic resources contributing 30% and the additional 5% coming from ‘agreed international support and cooperation for clean energies’.17
- When excluding LULUCF, Mexico’s unconditional target translates to:
786–863 MtCO2e in 2030, or 7-18% above 2015 levels.18 Note: only the 30% below BAU reduction achieved with Mexico’s own resources is considered in the Climate Action Tracker’s assessment of the unconditional target.
Conditional target in 2022 NDC:
- As expressed by the country:
40% GHG emissions reduction compared to BAU, contingent on a scaling up of international finance, innovation and technology transfer
- When excluding LULUCF, Mexico’s conditional target translates to:
689–766 MtCO2e in 2030, or 6% below to 5% above 2015 levels
Long-term target
Mexico does not have a net zero target. However, its Climate Change Mid-Century Strategy, published in 2016, aims to cut emissions by 50% by 2050 compared to 2000.19