What is the European Union's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Buildings
Direct emissions from the buildings sector in the EU decreased by 24% between 2005 and 2020 and accounting for around 15% of the total EU emissions. Part of the decrease was driven by home insulation and electrification of heating. Also, the increasing share of renewables in the sector, which in 2020 covered 23% of energy demand in the buildings sector, contributed to decreasing emissions.1 According to the amendment of the Renewable Energy Directive proposed by the European Commission in July 2021, the share of renewables in the buildings sector should increase to 49% by 2030.
the European Union's energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the buildings sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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All 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed in this project see a rapid increase in the electrification rate of the buildings sector with share of electricity in energy consumed increasing from 33% in 2017 to at least 52% in 2030, and 71% in 2050. This results mostly from electrification of heating (mostly through heat pumps) and cooking. An increasing share of electricity is set to be generated from onsite PV installations thus reducing direct CO₂ emissions from energy consumption to max 176-211 MtCO₂ in 2030 and 43-78 MtCO₂/kWh in 2040 from around 420 MtCO₂ in 2019. Buildings should reach close to full decarbonisation around between 2036 and 2048 depending on the model analysed.
the European Union's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and hydrogen in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for the European Union
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised buildings sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
420
|
176 to
211
|
43 to
78
|
13 to
23
|
2036 to
2048
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-58 to
-50%
|
-90 to
-82%
|
-97 to
-94%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
34
|
53 to
54
|
65 to
67
|
71 to
81
|
|
Share of heat
per cent
|
9
|
8 to
11
|
14 to
15
|
16 to
20
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
2 to
4
|
3 to
18
|
3 to
20
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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