What is the European Union's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Decarbonising the industry sector
The EU’s industry sector was responsible for 24% of economy-wide emissions in 2021 (including energy use and process emissions).1 Fossil gas provided a third of total industrial energy in 2021. Along with oil and coal, fossil fuels supplied half of industry’s energy needs.2
the European Union's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The Deep Electrification pathway would see significant growth in electrification of the industrial energy mix – with a similar boost for hydrogen – collectively achieving a 55% share of the mix by 2030 (up from 33% in 2021). Energy consumption would drop by almost 20% below 2021 levels by 2030, which can be achieved through stronger energy efficiency measures.
However, clear and coherent industrial electrification targets are still lacking at the European level and are subject to the discretion of member states.3 In addition, carbon capture utilisation and storage and nuclear energy are among the technologies the Net Zero Industry Act seeks to promote. There are long term sustainability concerns for both of these technologies, coupled with high costs and energy consumption.4 Scaling up nuclear and carbon capture utilisation and storage to meet climate targets does not align with the 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here.
the European Union's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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the European Union's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for the European Union
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised industry sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
465
|
103 to
182
|
28 to
142
|
-12 to
63
|
-26 to
15
|
2035 to
2043
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-78 to
-61%
|
-94 to
-69%
|
-103 to
-86%
|
-106 to
-97%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
33
|
35 to
52
|
40 to
59
|
44 to
63
|
47 to
64
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
per cent
|
42
|
60 to
68
|
68 to
77
|
78 to
83
|
81 to
90
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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